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An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on

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  • P Scarf

    (University of Salford)

  • S Akhtar

    (University of Salford)

Abstract

This paper analyses declaration and the follow-on decisions in test cricket. We model the match outcome given the end of first, second and third innings positions; data on 391 test matches, from the period 1997 to 2007, are used to fit the models. We then investigate how declaration strategy should vary from innings to innings, and how the nature and strength of the covariate effects vary. As the match progresses, the explanatory power of the covariates increases (from 44% at the end of the first innings to 80% at the end of the third). Home advantage and the effects of team strengths decrease. Overs-remaining, or equivalently overs used, and the number of runs by which the reference team lead their opponents remain important throughout. The follow-on decision problem is also briefly considered, and surprisingly, we find that the decision to enforce the follow-on or otherwise has no effect on match outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2010.169
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.169
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Scarf & Xin Shi & Sohail Akhtar, 2011. "On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 471-497, April.
    2. Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2003. "Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 247-256, July.
    3. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
    4. S R Clarke & J M Norman, 2003. "Dynamic programming in cricket: choosing a night watchman," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 838-845, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaurav Deval & Faiz Hamid & Mayank Goel, 2021. "When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 81-99, August.
    2. Praveen Puram & Soumya Roy & Deepak Srivastav & Anand Gurumurthy, 2023. "Understanding the effect of contextual factors and decision making on team performance in Twenty20 cricket: an interpretable machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 261-288, June.
    3. Moffatt Joanne & Scarf Phil & Passfield Louis & McHale Ian G. & Zhang Kui, 2014. "To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 161-172, June.
    4. Akhtar, Sohail & Scarf, Philip, 2012. "Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 632-643.
    5. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2015. "I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 414-419, May.

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