IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v10y2014i2p12n15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling

Author

Listed:
  • Moffatt Joanne

    (Salford Business School, University of Salford, Salford, M5 4WT, UK)

  • Scarf Phil

    (Salford Business School, University of Salford, Salford, M5 4WT, UK)

  • Passfield Louis

    (School of Sport & Exercise Sciences, University of Kent at Medway Chatham, Kent ME4 4AG, UK)

  • McHale Ian G.

    (Salford Business School, University of Salford, Salford, M5 4WT, UK)

  • Zhang Kui

    (Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023, Hubei, China)

Abstract

This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimize overtaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Moffatt Joanne & Scarf Phil & Passfield Louis & McHale Ian G. & Zhang Kui, 2014. "To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 161-172, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:12:n:15
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0112
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2013-0112?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    2. Gramacy Robert B. & Jensen Shane T. & Taddy Matt, 2013. "Estimating player contribution in hockey with regularized logistic regression," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 97-111, March.
    3. Fearing Douglas & Acimovic Jason & Graves Stephen C, 2011. "How to Catch a Tiger: Understanding Putting Performance on the PGA TOUR," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-47, January.
    4. Philip Scarf & Xin Shi & Sohail Akhtar, 2011. "On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 471-497, April.
    5. P. E. Allsopp & Stephen R. Clarke, 2004. "Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one‐day and test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(4), pages 657-667, November.
    6. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaurav Deval & Faiz Hamid & Mayank Goel, 2021. "When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 81-99, August.
    2. Akhtar, Sohail & Scarf, Philip, 2012. "Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 632-643.
    3. Praveen Puram & Soumya Roy & Deepak Srivastav & Anand Gurumurthy, 2023. "Understanding the effect of contextual factors and decision making on team performance in Twenty20 cricket: an interpretable machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 261-288, June.
    4. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2015. "I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 414-419, May.
    5. Priyanka Talukdar, 2020. "Investigating the Role of Opening Partners While Chasing on the Outcome of Twenty20 Cricket Matches," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(2), pages 222-232, May.
    6. Lenten, Liam J.A. & Geerling, Wayne & Kónya, László, 2012. "A hedonic model of player wage determination from the Indian Premier League auction: Further evidence," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 60-71.
    7. Brander James A. & Egan Edward J. & Yeung Louisa, 2014. "Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 241-259, June.
    8. Chowdhury, Subhasish M. & Jewell, Sarah & Singleton, Carl, 2024. "Can awareness reduce (and reverse) identity-driven bias in judgement? Evidence from international cricket," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Jean-Baptiste Vilain, 2018. "Three essays in applied economics [Trois essais en économie appliquée]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03419493, HAL.
    10. Abhinav Sacheti & Ian Gregory-Smith & David Paton, 2016. "Managerial Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 44-63, January.
    11. P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    12. Subhasis Ray, 2021. "Identification of Research Paradigms for Managing the Cricketing Ecosystem Using Stakeholder Analysis and Text Mining," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 46(3), pages 289-312, August.
    13. Sarah Jewell & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "It's Just Not Cricket: The Uncontested Toss and the Gentleman's Game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    14. Hemanta Saikia, 2020. "Quantifying the Current Form of Cricket Teams and Predicting the Match Winner," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(2), pages 151-158, May.
    15. Yurko Ronald & Ventura Samuel & Horowitz Maksim, 2019. "nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 163-183, September.
    16. Kharrat, Tarak & McHale, Ian G. & Peña, Javier López, 2020. "Plus–minus player ratings for soccer," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 726-736.
    17. Szczecinski Leszek, 2022. "G-Elo: generalization of the Elo algorithm by modeling the discretized margin of victory," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, March.
    18. Daniel C. Hickman & Neil E. Metz, 2018. "Peer Effects In A Competitive Environment: Evidence From The Pga Tour," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 208-225, January.
    19. P Dawson & B Morley & D Paton & D Thomas, 2009. "To bat or not to bat: An examination of match outcomes in day-night limited overs cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1786-1793, December.
    20. Hickman, Daniel C. & Metz, Neil E., 2015. "The impact of pressure on performance: Evidence from the PGA TOUR," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 319-330.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:12:n:15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.