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A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics

Author

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  • Lan Ge
  • Anders Kristensen
  • Monique Mourits
  • Ruud Huirne

Abstract

Animal disease epidemics such as the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pose recurrent threat to countries with intensive livestock production. Efficient FMD control is crucial in limiting the damage of FMD epidemics and securing food production. Decision making in FMD control involves a hierarchy of decisions made at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. These decisions are interdependent and have to be made under uncertainty about future development of the epidemic. Addressing this decision problem, this paper presents a new decision-support framework based on multi-level hierarchic Markov processes (MLHMP). The MLHMP model simultaneously optimizes decisions at strategic, tactical, and operational levels, using Bayesian forecasting methods to model uncertainty and learning about the epidemic. As illustrated by the example, the framework is especially useful in contingency planning for future FMD epidemics. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Lan Ge & Anders Kristensen & Monique Mourits & Ruud Huirne, 2014. "A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 49-62, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:219:y:2014:i:1:p:49-62:10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0774-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toft, Nils & Kristensen, Anders R. & Jorgensen, Erik, 2005. "A framework for decision support related to infectious diseases in slaughter pig fattening units," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 120-137, August.
    2. Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard, 1993. "Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 223-239.
    3. Anders Kristensen & Erik Jørgensen, 2000. "Multi‐level hierarchic Markov processes as a framework for herd management support," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 69-89, January.
    4. Ronald Meester & Jan Koning & Mart C. M. Jong & Odo Diekmann, 2002. "Modeling and Real-Time Prediction of Classical Swine Fever Epidemics," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 178-184, March.
    5. Olivier Mahul & Bernard Durand, 2000. "Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France," Post-Print hal-01952105, HAL.
    6. Philip L. Paarlberg & John G. Lee, 1998. "Import Restrictions in the Presence of a Health Risk: An Illustration Using FMD," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 175-183.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stygar, Anna H. & Niemi, Jarkko K. & Oliviero, Claudio & Laurila, Tapio & Heinonen, Mari, 2016. "Economic value of mitigating Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae infections in pig fattening herds," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 113-121.

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