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Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem

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  • Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

Abstract

The observed level of milk yield of a dairy cow or the litter size of a sow is only partially the result of a permanent characteristic of the animal; temporary effects are also involved. Thus, we face a problem concerning the proper definition and measurement of the traits in order to give the best possible prediction of the future revenues from an animal considered for replacement. A trait model describing the underlying effects is built into a model combining a Bayesian approach with hierarchic Markov process in order to be able to calculate optimal replacement policies under various conditions. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard, 1993. "Bayesian Updating in Hierarchic Markov Processes Applied to the Animal Replacement Problem," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 223-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:20:y:1993:i:2:p:223-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Yates, C. M. & Rehman, T. & Chamberlain, A. T., 1996. "Evaluation of the potential effects of embryo transfer on milk production on commercial dairy herds: The development of a markov chain model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 65-79.
    2. Erik Jørgensen & Anders Kristensen & Dennis Nilsson, 2014. "Markov Limid processes for representing and solving renewal problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 63-84, August.
    3. Yates, C.M. & Rehman, T., 1998. "A linear programming formulation of the Markovian decision process approach to modelling the dairy replacement problem," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 185-201, October.
    4. Lars Relund Nielsen & Erik Jørgensen & Søren Højsgaard, 2011. "Embedding a state space model into a Markov decision process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 289-309, October.
    5. Hegrenes, Agnar & Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2003. "Optimal Economic Length Of Leys: A Dynamic Programming Approach," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25848, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Lan Ge & Anders Kristensen & Monique Mourits & Ruud Huirne, 2014. "A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 49-62, August.

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