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Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks

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  • Paarlberg, Philip L.
  • Lee, John G.
  • Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg

Abstract

The paper surveys articles examining the economic impacts of a livestock disease outbreak and focuses on modeling issues. One set of papers considers setting an import barrier when there is a livestock disease risk. They show that the level of a risk-based import barrier is sensitive to the impact of disease on economic welfare. The remaining articles focus on estimates of the economic impacts. An outbreak is modeled in a U.S. agricultural sector model and shows the importance of lost exports and consumer response to the magnitude of losses. The final paper argues for de-composition of the welfare impacts. Lessons for future research include improved links to epidemiological research, improved inclusion of trade, extension to non-agricultural sectors, and knowledge of consumer response.

Suggested Citation

  • Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:8178
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G., 1998. "Import Rules For Fmd Contaminated Beef," Working Papers 14599, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann H., 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 53-65, April.
    3. Philip L. Paarlberg & John G. Lee, 1998. "Import Restrictions in the Presence of a Health Risk: An Illustration Using FMD," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 175-183.
    4. John M. Marsh, 1994. "Estimating Intertemporal Supply Response in the Fed Beef Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 444-453.
    5. McCauley, E. Hunt & Aulaqi, Nasser A. & New, John C. Jr & Sundquist, W. Burt & Miller, William M., 1979. "A Study of the Potential Economic Impact of Food-and-Mouth Disease in the United States," Technical Bulletins 157744, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Poe, Gregory L., 2002. "The Other Side of the Pond: U.K. Farm Crises: Ignored Lessons about Agriculture and Society," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 1-4.
    7. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2003. "Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Johnson, Kamina K., 2005. "Animal Disease Economic Impacts: A Survey of Literature and Typology of Research Approaches," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23.
    9. Kalyan K. Sanyal & Ronald W. Jones, 2018. "The Theory of Trade in Middle Products," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Theory and Competitive Models Features, Values, and Criticisms, chapter 13, pages 203-231, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Yang, Seung-Ryong & Koo, Won W., 1994. "Japanese Meat Import Demand Estimation With The Source Differentiated Aids Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Vanzetti, 2007. "Avian influenza is a deadly disease that can spread rapidly through poultry," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec07-02, International and Development Economics.
    2. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Okike, Iheanacho & Bett, Bernard, 2014. "An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B., 2014. "Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 418-424.

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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

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