IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v186y2011i1p39-5910.1007-s10479-010-0833-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogenizing the sticks and carrots: modeling possible perverse effects of counterterrorism measures

Author

Listed:
  • Vicki Bier
  • Kjell Hausken

Abstract

We present a novel model capable of distinguishing between the effects of negative incentives (“sticks”) and positive incentives (“carrots”) for influencing the behavior of intelligent and adaptable adversaries. Utilities are developed for the defender and the terrorist. The defender is assumed to have a unit cost of defense, and unit costs of providing negative and positive incentives. The terrorist likewise has a unit cost of attack, which may either increase or decrease if the defender provides negative incentives, and enjoys a unit benefit of positive incentives. We show that the potential for perverse effects of counterterrorism (e.g., the emergence of hatred) can cause defenders to rely on positive incentives and decrease their reliance on negative incentives at equilibrium, with use of negative incentives completely eliminated in situations where these would be moderately effective when applied. With low potential for perverse effects of counterterrorism, the defender should rely on effective negative incentives. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Vicki Bier & Kjell Hausken, 2011. "Endogenizing the sticks and carrots: modeling possible perverse effects of counterterrorism measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 39-59, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:186:y:2011:i:1:p:39-59:10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keohane, Nathaniel O & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. "The Ecology of Terror Defense," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 201-229, March-May.
    2. Stergios Skaperdas, 1996. "Contest success functions (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 283-290.
    3. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2011. "The Interplay Between Preemptive and Defensive Counterterrorism Measures: A Two‐stage Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 546-564, July.
    4. Hausken, Kjell, 2006. "Income, interdependence, and substitution effects affecting incentives for security investment," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 629-665.
    5. Vicki Bier & Santiago Oliveros & Larry Samuelson, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation against an Unknown Attacker," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 9(4), pages 563-587, August.
    6. Robert J. Aumann, 1995. "Repeated Games with Incomplete Information," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011476, April.
    7. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Political Economy of Hatred," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 45-86.
    8. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 26-52, February.
    9. Lakdawalla, Darius & Zanjani, George, 2005. "Insurance, self-protection, and the economics of terrorism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1891-1905, September.
    10. Salop, Steven C & Scheffman, David T, 1983. "Raising Rivals' Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 267-271, May.
    11. Bruno S. Frey, 2004. "Dealing with Terrorism – Stick or Carrot?," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3435.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Sandler, Todd, 2023. "Politically influenced counterterrorism policy and welfare efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Abhra Roy & Jomon Paul, 2013. "Terrorism deterrence in a two country framework: strategic interactions between R&D, defense and pre-emption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 211(1), pages 399-432, December.
    3. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    4. Gao, Kaiye & Yan, Xiangbin & Liu, Xiang-dong & Peng, Rui, 2019. "Object defence of a single object with preventive strike of random effect," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 209-219.
    5. Jaspersen, Johannes G. & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2020. "On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 221-234.
    6. F He & J Zhuang, 2012. "Modelling ‘contracts’ between a terrorist group and a government in a sequential game," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 63(6), pages 790-809, June.
    7. Song, Yu & Chen, Bo & Hou, Na & Yang, Yi, 2022. "Terrorist attacks and oil prices: A time-varying causal relationship analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    8. Hunt, Kyle & Zhuang, Jun, 2024. "A review of attacker-defender games: Current state and paths forward," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 313(2), pages 401-417.
    9. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2021. "National security vs. human rights: A game theoretic analysis of the tension between these objectives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 790-805.
    10. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    11. Kjell Hausken, 2020. "Governmental combat of migration between competing terrorist organisations," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(3), pages 21-46.
    12. Di Wu & Xiangbin Yan & Rui Peng & Shaomin Wu, 2020. "Optimal defence-attack strategies between one defender and two attackers," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(11), pages 1830-1846, November.
    13. Julei Fu & Duoyong Sun & Jian Chai & Jin Xiao & Shouyang Wang, 2015. "The “six-element” analysis method for the research on the characteristics of terrorist activities," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 17-35, November.
    14. Wu, Di & Yan, Xiangbin & Peng, Rui & Wu, Shaomin, 2020. "Risk-attitude-based defense strategy considering proactive strike, preventive strike and imperfect false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. João Ricardo Faria & Andreas Novak & Aniruddha Bagchi & Timothy Mathews, 2020. "The Refugee Game: The Relationship between Individual Security Expenditures and Collective Security," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan Weber, 2019. "Terrorism risk and optimal policy response: theory and empirics," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 449-468, October.
    17. Wu, Di & Xiao, Hui & Peng, Rui, 2018. "Object defense with preventive strike and false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 76-80.
    18. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    19. João Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2021. "The Path of Terror Attacks," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-11, April.
    20. Wang, Shuliang & Gu, Xifeng & Luan, Shengyang & Zhao, Mingwei, 2021. "Resilience analysis of interdependent critical infrastructure systems considering deep learning and network theory," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    21. Hausken, Kjell, 2019. "Governmental combat of the dynamics of multiple competing terrorist organizations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 33-55.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    2. Kjell Hausken, 2012. "Game Theoretic Analysis of Standby Systems," Chapters, in: Yair Holtzman (ed.), Advanced Topics in Applied Operations Management, IntechOpen.
    3. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "Meeting a demand vs. enhancing protections in homogeneous parallel systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1711-1717.
    4. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "False targets efficiency in defense strategy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 155-162, April.
    5. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Protection vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(10), pages 1444-1451.
    6. Kjell Hausken & Vicki M. Bier & Jun Zhuang, 2009. "Defending Against Terrorism, Natural Disaster, and All Hazards," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Vicki M. M. Bier & M. Naceur Azaiez (ed.), Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats, chapter 4, pages 65-97, Springer.
    7. Kjell Hausken & Gregory Levitin, 2008. "Efficiency of Even Separation of Parallel Elements with Variable Contest Intensity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1477-1486, October.
    8. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2010. "Separation in homogeneous systems with independent identical elements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 625-634, June.
    9. Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Whether to attack a terrorist's resource stock today or tomorrow," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 548-564, November.
    10. Hausken, Kjell, 2017. "Defense and attack for interdependent systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 582-591.
    11. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "Intelligence and impact contests in systems with redundancy, false targets, and partial protection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1927-1941.
    12. Kjell Hausken, 2017. "Security Investment, Hacking, and Information Sharing between Firms and between Hackers," Games, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Jun Zhuang & Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Balancing Terrorism and Natural Disasters---Defensive Strategy with Endogenous Attacker Effort," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 976-991, October.
    14. Qingqing Zhai & Rui Peng & Jun Zhuang, 2020. "Defender–Attacker Games with Asymmetric Player Utilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 408-420, February.
    15. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2011. "Preventive strike vs. false targets and protection in defense strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 912-924.
    16. Abhra Roy & Jomon Paul, 2013. "Terrorism deterrence in a two country framework: strategic interactions between R&D, defense and pre-emption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 211(1), pages 399-432, December.
    17. Gregory Levitin & Kjell Hausken, 2013. "Parallel systems under two sequential attacks with contest intensity variation," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 207-224, January.
    18. Xing Gao & Weijun Zhong & Shue Mei, 2013. "Information Security Investment When Hackers Disseminate Knowledge," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 352-368, December.
    19. Levitin, Gregory & Hausken, Kjell, 2009. "Parallel systems under two sequential attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 763-772.
    20. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2016. "How Elections are Impacted by Production, Economic Growth and Conflict," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-29, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:186:y:2011:i:1:p:39-59:10.1007/s10479-010-0833-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.