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Modelling ‘contracts’ between a terrorist group and a government in a sequential game

Author

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  • F He

    (University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA)

  • J Zhuang

    (University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, we apply a sequential game to study the possibility of ‘contracts’ (or at least mutually beneficial arrangements) between a government and a terrorist group. We find equilibrium solutions for complete and incomplete information models, where the government defends and/or provides positive rent, and the terrorist group attacks. We also study the sensitivities of equilibria as a function of both players’ target valuations and preferences for rent. The contract option, if successful, may achieve (partial) attack deterrence, and significantly increase the payoffs not only for the government, but also for some types of terrorist groups. Our work thus provides some novel insights in combating terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • F He & J Zhuang, 2012. "Modelling ‘contracts’ between a terrorist group and a government in a sequential game," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 63(6), pages 790-809, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:63:y:2012:i:6:p:790-809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Zhuang & Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Balancing Terrorism and Natural Disasters---Defensive Strategy with Endogenous Attacker Effort," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 976-991, October.
    2. Vicki Bier & Kjell Hausken, 2011. "Endogenizing the sticks and carrots: modeling possible perverse effects of counterterrorism measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 39-59, June.
    3. Zhuang, Jun & Bier, Vicki M. & Alagoz, Oguzhan, 2010. "Modeling secrecy and deception in a multiple-period attacker-defender signaling game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 409-418, June.
    4. G Levitin & K Hausken, 2010. "Defence and attack of systems with variable attacker system structure detection probability," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(1), pages 124-133, January.
    5. Todd Sandler & Kevin Siqueira, 2006. "Global terrorism: deterrence versus pre‐emption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1370-1387, November.
    6. Hausken, Kjell & Levitin, Gregory, 2009. "Protection vs. false targets in series systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(5), pages 973-981.
    7. Todd Sandler, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(6), pages 723-729, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Li, Yapeng & Qiao, Shun & Deng, Ye & Wu, Jun, 2019. "Stackelberg game in critical infrastructures from a network science perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 705-714.
    4. Afshan Naseem & Shoab Ahmed Khan & Asad Waqar Malik, 2017. "A real-time man-in-loop threat evaluation and resource assignment in defense," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(6), pages 725-738, June.
    5. Nageswara S. V. Rao & Stephen W. Poole & Chris Y. T. Ma & Fei He & Jun Zhuang & David K. Y. Yau, 2016. "Defense of Cyber Infrastructures Against Cyber‐Physical Attacks Using Game‐Theoretic Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 694-710, April.

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