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Прогнозирование Численности Клиентской Базы Компании На Основе Марковских Цепей

Author

Listed:
  • Андреева А.В.
  • Богданова Т.К.

Abstract

Построена информационно-логическая комплексная модель управления клиентской базой компании для расчета показателя долгосрочной стоимости клиента. В отличие от предыдущих исследований в модели учтены особенности покупательского поведения и социально-демографические характеристики групп клиентов, а перемещение клиентов внутри клиентской базы представлено в виде марковской цепи. Разработанная комплексная динамическая модель управления клиентской базой компании позволяет прогнозировать численность кластеров и клиентской базы в целом на любом заданном интервале времени, проводить анализ динамики изменения численности клиентских кластеров и выделить наиболее важные этапы формирования и развития клиентской базы компании. На каждом этапе выделенные группы клиентов оцениваются с точки зрения будущей прибыли для компании и потенциала перекрестных продаж продуктов/услуг. Полученные оценки позволяют рассчитать допустимый бюджет на маркетинговые мероприятия при сохранении заданного уровня прибыли и составить наиболее эффективный план проведения адресно-направленных маркетинговых мероприятий.

Suggested Citation

  • Андреева А.В. & Богданова Т.К., 2016. "Прогнозирование Численности Клиентской Базы Компании На Основе Марковских Цепей," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(1), pages 79-94, январь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:79-94
    Note: Москва
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    References listed on IDEAS

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