IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/cememm/v52y2016i1p79-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Прогнозирование Численности Клиентской Базы Компании На Основе Марковских Цепей

Author

Listed:
  • Андреева А.В.
  • Богданова Т.К.

Abstract

Построена информационно-логическая комплексная модель управления клиентской базой компании для расчета показателя долгосрочной стоимости клиента. В отличие от предыдущих исследований в модели учтены особенности покупательского поведения и социально-демографические характеристики групп клиентов, а перемещение клиентов внутри клиентской базы представлено в виде марковской цепи. Разработанная комплексная динамическая модель управления клиентской базой компании позволяет прогнозировать численность кластеров и клиентской базы в целом на любом заданном интервале времени, проводить анализ динамики изменения численности клиентских кластеров и выделить наиболее важные этапы формирования и развития клиентской базы компании. На каждом этапе выделенные группы клиентов оцениваются с точки зрения будущей прибыли для компании и потенциала перекрестных продаж продуктов/услуг. Полученные оценки позволяют рассчитать допустимый бюджет на маркетинговые мероприятия при сохранении заданного уровня прибыли и составить наиболее эффективный план проведения адресно-направленных маркетинговых мероприятий.

Suggested Citation

  • Андреева А.В. & Богданова Т.К., 2016. "Прогнозирование Численности Клиентской Базы Компании На Основе Марковских Цепей," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(1), pages 79-94, январь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:79-94
    Note: Москва
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee, 2005. "“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 275-284, August.
    2. Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2009. "Probability Models for Customer-Base Analysis," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-69.
    3. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    2. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    3. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    4. Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Schröder, Nadine, 2021. "Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 194-215.
    5. Valendin, Jan & Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Kalcher, Klaudius, 2022. "Customer base analysis with recurrent neural networks," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 988-1018.
    6. Park, Chang Hee & Yoon, Tae Jung, 2022. "The dark side of up-selling promotions: Evidence from an analysis of cross-brand purchase behavior☆," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 647-666.
    7. Romero, Jaime & van der Lans, Ralf & Wierenga, Berend, 2013. "A Partially Hidden Markov Model of Customer Dynamics for CLV Measurement," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 185-208.
    8. Clemente-Císcar, M. & San Matías, S. & Giner-Bosch, V., 2014. "A methodology based on profitability criteria for defining the partial defection of customers in non-contractual settings," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(1), pages 276-285.
    9. Shaohui Ma & Joachim Büschken, 2011. "Counting your customers from an “always a share” perspective," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 243-257, September.
    10. Jaiswal, Anand K. & Niraj, Rakesh & Park, Chang Hee & Agarwal, Manoj K., 2018. "The effect of relationship and transactional characteristics on customer retention in emerging online markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-35.
    11. Ascarza, & Neslin, & Netzer, & Lemmens, Aurélie & Anderson, Zachery & Fader, Peter S. & Gupta, S. & Hardie, B.G.S. & Libai, Barak & Neal, David & Provost, Foster, 2018. "In pursuit of enhanced customer retention management : Review, key issues, and future directions," Other publications TiSEM 28a90d28-6daf-42f1-bd8e-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. van Oest, Rutger & Knox, George, 2011. "Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 30-37.
    13. Angelovska, Nina, 2021. "Analysis Of Customer Activity, The Importance Of Timing For Effective Marketing Actions: Case Of Group Buying Site, Grouper," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 12(2), pages 156-170.
    14. Jerath, Kinshuk & Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2016. "Customer-base analysis using repeated cross-sectional summary (RCSS) data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 340-350.
    15. Yan Yan & Nicholas Resnick, 2024. "A high-performance turnkey system for customer lifetime value prediction in retail brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 169-192, June.
    16. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2010. "Customer-Base Valuation in a Contractual Setting: The Perils of Ignoring Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 85-93, 01-02.
    17. Brighton, Henry, 2020. "Statistical foundations of ecological rationality," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-32.
    18. David A. Schweidel & Young-Hoon Park & Zainab Jamal, 2014. "A Multiactivity Latent Attrition Model for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 273-286, March.
    19. Michael Haenlein, 2011. "A social network analysis of customer-level revenue distribution," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 15-29, March.
    20. Donald R. Lehmann & Jeffrey R. Parker, 2017. "Disadoption," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 7(1), pages 36-51, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:79-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sergei Parinov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/emm/home.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.