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Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

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  • van Oest, Rutger
  • Knox, George

Abstract

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.

Suggested Citation

  • van Oest, Rutger & Knox, George, 2011. "Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 30-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:30-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2010.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee, 2005. "“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 275-284, August.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.

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