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Is the Tourism Sector Supportive of Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence on Romanian Tourism

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  • Camelia Surugiu

    (National Institute for Research and Development in Tourism, 17 Apolodor Street, 050741 Bucharest, Sector 5, Romania, and Faculty of Administration and Business, University of Bucharest, Romania)

  • Marius Razvan Surugiu

    (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run relationships between tourism expansion and economic growth in Romania during the period 1988–2009. The empirical evidence highlights the nature of causal relationships, if any, between domestic travel and tourism spending, internal travel and tourism consumption, the gross domestic product annual growth rate and the real exchange rate. The paper uses the cointegration method and Granger causality analysis based on the vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse functions. The findings suggest that there are Granger causality relationships running from tourism expansion to economic growth, which sustains the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). These results emphasize the need for more consistent tourism development plans and strategies to be implemented at national and regional levels by the governmental authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Camelia Surugiu & Marius Razvan Surugiu, 2013. "Is the Tourism Sector Supportive of Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence on Romanian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 115-132, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:115-132
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0196
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    3. Blanka Skrabic Peric & Zana Vidovic, 2017. "Heterogeneous Panel Granger causality between GDP and Tourism in 11 EU members in Central and Southeastern Europe," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 6-27.
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    6. Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi, 2019. "Is Tourism a Sustainable Haven for Economic Growth in North African Countries? An Evidence From Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 93449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Muhammad Irfan & Munir Ahmad & Ousmane Traore, 2020. "Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    9. Paulo Maçãs Nunes & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2017. "Short-term debt and long-term debt determinants in small and medium-sized hospitality firms," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 543-560, May.
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    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    12. Viorica Chirilă & Gina Ionela Butnaru & Ciprian Chirilă, 2020. "Spillover Index Approach in Investigating the Linkage between International Tourism and Economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-36, September.
    13. Sadia Bano & Mehtab Alam & Anwar Khan & Lu Liu, 2021. "The nexus of tourism, renewable energy, income, and environmental quality: an empirical analysis of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14854-14877, October.
    14. Micic, Ja., 2018. "Tourism development and regional disparities in Serbia," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 4(4), pages 167-173.
    15. Khadijah Hussain, 2020. "Social Media Impact On Tourism In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 74-84, June.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    17. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
    18. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    19. Cao, Zheng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2017. "Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Jianxu Liu & Vicente Ramos & Bing Yang & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2024. "Analysing the dynamic co-movement between tourism and expected economic growth considering extreme events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-26, February.
    21. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    23. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Examining the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Spillover Index Approach for Selected CEE and SEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    24. Perić Jože & Radić Maja Nikšić, 2016. "FDI-led tourism growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Croatian tourism," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 7(3), pages 168-175, December.

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