IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i5p723-d757926.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries under the Presence of Structural Break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator

Author

Listed:
  • Paravee Maneejuk

    (Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

  • Woraphon Yamaka

    (Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

  • Wilawan Srichaikul

    (Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

Abstract

This study examines the nonlinear impact of tourism development on economic growth in Southeast Asian countries using the panel kink regression model. Due to the paucity of Southeast Asian data, we may face the overparameterization problem in our model. To deal with this problem, this study proposes the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator to estimate the unknown parameters in this nonlinear model. Several important tourism development indicators consisting of the total international arrivals, international tourism expenditure, and tourism receipts are considered. In addition, we also consider the gross capital formation and real effective exchange rate as a control variable in our nonlinear model. Our findings show that the effect of international tourist arrivals on economic growth should be separated into two regimes, while other factors do not exhibit a nonlinear relationship with Southeast Asian economic growth. Thus, we construct the empirical model with the kink effect in the variable of international tourist arrivals. To confirm the performance of the GME estimator, we compare it to the ordinary least squares and the fixed effect estimators. According to the mean squared and root means squared errors, we find that our GME estimator performs better than the ordinary least squares and the fixed effect estimators. This indicates that GME estimation is an applicable method for estimating the nonlinear effect of tourism growth on economic growth. Our empirical results show that there are positive impacts of tourism growth on economic growth for regime 1 (low tourism demand) and regime 2 (high tourism demand) with the effect of the low tourist arrivals regime being relatively larger. We also find a positive influence of gross capital formation, real effective exchange rate, international tourism expenditure, and tourism receipts on Southeast Asian economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Paravee Maneejuk & Woraphon Yamaka & Wilawan Srichaikul, 2022. "Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries under the Presence of Structural Break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:723-:d:757926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/5/723/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/5/723/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Cheng Hsiao, 2007. "Panel data analysis—advantages and challenges," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Zhang, Yonghui & Zhou, Qiankun & Jiang, Li, 2017. "Panel kink regression with an unknown threshold," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 116-121.
    4. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
    7. Geng-Nan Chiang & Wei-Ying Sung & Wen-Guu Lei, 2017. "Regime-Switching Effect of Tourism Specialization on Economic Growth in Asia Pacific Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, June.
    8. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Mastura Hashim & Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2018. "GDP vs genuine progress quantification of economic performance in South Korea and Malaysia," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 169-178.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    11. Tugcu, Can Tansel, 2014. "Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 207-212.
    12. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    13. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
    14. Yu-Shan Wang, 2012. "Research Note: Threshold Effects on Development of Tourism and Economic Growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 1135-1141, October.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    16. Haiyan Song & Gang Li & Stephen F. Witt & Baogang Fei, 2010. "Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 63-81, March.
    17. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    18. Po, Wan-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2008. "Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5535-5542.
    19. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    20. Avishek Khanal & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam & Eswaran Velayutham, 2021. "Are Tourism and Energy Consumption Linked? Evidence from Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.
    21. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mosab I. Tabash & Suhaib Anagreh & Bilal Haider Subhani & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Krzysztof Drachal, 2023. "Tourism, Remittances, and Foreign Investment as Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Selected Asian Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdulkarim K. Alhowaish, 2016. "Is Tourism Development a Sustainable Economic Growth Strategy in the Long Run? Evidence from GCC Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-10, June.
    2. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    3. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    5. Osinubi, Tolulope Temilola & Osinubi , Olufemi Bankole, 2020. "Inclusive Growth in Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    7. Yong Su & Jacob Cherian & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Alina Badulescu & Phung Anh Thu & Daniel Badulescu & Sarminah Samad, 2021. "Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.
    8. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    9. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Driha, Oana M. & Sinha, Avik, 2020. "The dynamic effects of globalization process in analysing N-shaped tourism led growth hypothesis," MPRA Paper 100078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aistov, Andrey & Nikolaeva, Tatiana, 2019. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 5-24.
    11. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. George Ekonomou & George Halkos, 2024. "Expanding the tourism energy growth nexus: an empirical analysis within the Eurozone," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 27585-27605, November.
    14. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    15. David Perrain & Philippe Jean-Pierre, 2019. "The smart destination strategy, a key factor for changes in vulnerable tourist destinations? [La stratégie de destination intelligente, facteur clé des mutations des destinations touristiques vulné," Post-Print hal-02144769, HAL.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    17. Waheed Ahmad & Tariq Majeed & Zubaria Andlib, 2020. "Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Five South Asian Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-59, March.
    18. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    19. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    20. Yuanyuan Wu & Zhanhua Jia & Tingting Yu, 2022. "Tourism and Green Development: Analysis of Linear and Non-Linear Effects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-22, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:723-:d:757926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.