IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v25y2019i5p827-831.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

UK overseas visitors: Seasonality and persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (Brunel University London, UK)

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Spain)

Abstract

This article analyses seasonality and persistence in the number of UK overseas visitors applying a fractional integration framework to (monthly and quarterly) data from 1986 to 2017. The results indicate that long memory is present in the series and the degree of persistence is higher for seasonally adjusted data, with shocks having transitory but long-lasting effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2019. "UK overseas visitors: Seasonality and persistence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 827-831, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:5:p:827-831
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816618817884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816618817884
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816618817884?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Malaysia's Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-112, March.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    4. K.B. Nowman & S. Van Dellen, 2012. "Forecasting Overseas Visitors to the UK Using Continuous Time and Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average Models with Discrete Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 835-844, August.
    5. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & Payne, 2015. "Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: evidence from the Adriatic region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(46), pages 4901-4917, October.
    6. Jae H. Kim & Imad Moosa, 2001. "Seasonal Behaviour of Monthly International Tourist Flows: Specification and Implications for Forecasting Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 381-396, December.
    7. Dillon Alleyne, 2006. "Can Seasonal Unit Root Testing Improve the Forecasting Accuracy of Tourist Arrivals?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 45-64, March.
    8. Shujie Shen & Gang Li & Haiyan Song, 2009. "Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 693-708, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    2. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    2. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    3. Anna Serena Vergori, 2017. "Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1011-1027, August.
    4. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
    5. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. José María Martín Martín & José Antonio Rodriguez Martín & Karla Aída Zermeño Mejía & José Antonio Salinas Fernández, 2018. "Effects of Vacation Rental Websites on the Concentration of Tourists—Potential Environmental Impacts. An Application to the Balearic Islands in Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March.
    8. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Alternative estimators and unit root tests for seasonal autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 35-73, May.
    9. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana, 2018. "Data measurement and the change in persistence of tourist arrivals to the United States in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.
    10. José María Martín Martín & Jose Antonio Salinas Fernández & José Antonio Rodríguez Martín & Juan De Dios Jiménez Aguilera, 2017. "Assessment of the Tourism’s Potential as a Sustainable Development Instrument in Terms of Annual Stability: Application to Spanish Rural Destinations in Process of Consolidation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Gregoir, Stephane, 2006. "Efficient tests for the presence of a pair of complex conjugate unit roots in real time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 45-100, January.
    12. Regnard, Nazim & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2011. "A conditionally heteroskedastic model with time-varying coefficients for daily gas spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1240-1251.
    13. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Re-evaluating the association between housing wealth and aggregate consumption: New evidence from Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 321-348, December.
    14. Andrea Saayman & Ilsé Botha, 2017. "Non-linear models for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 594-613, May.
    15. Abbott, Andrew & De Vita, Glauco & Altinay, Levent, 2012. "Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 537-544.
    16. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    17. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Semi-Parametric Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 447-476, April.
    18. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit root testing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 43-58, March.
    19. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Efficient tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 548-573, December.
    20. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:5:p:827-831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.