IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v31y2006i1p165-182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?

Author

Listed:
  • Artur Silva Lopes

Abstract

This paper investigates the properties of Dickey-Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Artur Silva Lopes, 2006. "Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 165-182, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:1:p:165-182
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0029-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-005-0029-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-005-0029-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2003. "Searching For Additive Outliers In Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 193-220, March.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
    4. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444606, November.
    5. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, December.
    6. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    8. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    10. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-534, June.
    11. Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-152, April.
    12. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444590, November.
    13. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    14. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 1999. "Spurious deterministic seasonality and autocorrelation corrections with quarterly data: Further Monte Carlo results," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 341-359.
    15. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    16. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
    17. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    18. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    19. A. M. R. Taylor, 2000. "The Finite Sample Effects of Deterministic Variables on Conventional Methods of Lag‐selection in Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 293-304, May.
    20. Kiviet, Jan F & Phillips, Garry D A, 1992. "Exact Similar Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 349-367, August.
    21. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549.
    22. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1994. "Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 259-272, April.
    23. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2003. "The order of integration for quarterly macroeconomic time series: A simple testing strategy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 783-794, November.
    24. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, January.
    25. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler, 2007. "Effect of neglected deterministic seasonality on unit root tests," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 385-402, September.
    26. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    27. Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
    28. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M., 2000. "A note on the application of the DF test to seasonal data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-175, April.
    29. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit root testing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 43-58, March.
    30. Francisco J. MartÎn-âlvarez & Victor J. Cano-FernÂndez & JosÊ J. CÂceres-HernÂndez, 1999. "The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 403-414.
    31. Pantula, Sastry G, 1991. "Asymptotic Distributions of Unit-Root Tests When the Process Is Nearly Stationary," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 63-71, January.
    32. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    33. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    34. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    35. Kivilcim Metin & Ilker Muslu, 1999. "Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 415-426.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    2. Deman, Laureen & Boucher, Quentin, 2023. "Impact of renewable energy generation on power reserve energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler, 2007. "Effect of neglected deterministic seasonality on unit root tests," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 385-402, September.
    4. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, November.
    2. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
    3. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    4. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997. "The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.
    6. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    7. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit root testing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 43-58, March.
    8. Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 61-70, January.
    9. Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Alternative estimators and unit root tests for seasonal autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 35-73, May.
    10. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Dillon Alleyne, 2006. "Can Seasonal Unit Root Testing Improve the Forecasting Accuracy of Tourist Arrivals?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 45-64, March.
    12. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Semi-Parametric Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 447-476, April.
    14. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    15. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
    16. B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2005. "Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests," MPRA Paper 125, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006.
    17. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    18. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
    19. Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit root; Dickey–Fuller tests; Similar tests; Seasonality; Monte Carlo; C22; C52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:1:p:165-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.