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Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: evidence from the Adriatic region

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  • Gil-Alana
  • Andrea Mervar
  • Payne

Abstract

This study examines the degree of persistence in foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays for seven Croatian coastal counties over the period January 1998 to December 2013 using fractional integration techniques. Our findings reveal that the respective regional tourism indicators exhibit seasonal unit roots which require seasonal first differences to render the respective time series stationary. With respect to the long-run evolution of the respective time series, both the parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration approaches show the degree of persistence is greater than zero, but significantly less than one for the majority of the coastal counties. Impulse response analysis reveals indeed shocks to the deseasonalized time series, either foreign tourist arrivals or foreign tourist overnight stays, appear short-lived with the exception of Istria and Primorje-Gorski kotar counties. Policy implications of the results are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & Payne, 2015. "Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: evidence from the Adriatic region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(46), pages 4901-4917, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:46:p:4901-4917
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1037440
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    2. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana, 2018. "Data measurement and the change in persistence of tourist arrivals to the United States in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2019. "UK overseas visitors: Seasonality and persistence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 827-831, August.
    4. Craig A. Depken & Tomislav Globan & Ivan Kožić, 2020. "Television-Induced Tourism: Evidence from Croatia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 253-262, June.
    5. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    7. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    8. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    9. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.
    10. Hrvoje Grofelnik & Nataša Kovačić, 2023. "Factors Influencing the Carbon Footprint of Major Road Infrastructure—A Case Study of the Učka Tunnel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, March.

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