IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v3y2002i2p201-216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: Evidence on the Fisher Effect in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Arusha Cooray

    (Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia Email: arushacooray@hotmail.com.)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between interest rates and inflation for Sri Lanka and whether this relationship is consistent with market efficiency It employs three data frequencies and two approaches, namely, the adaptive and rational expectations approaches for modelling inflationary expectations. While some support is found for the Fisher relationship under both approaches, it is possible to conclude that the strongest support is found for the adaptive expectations approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Arusha Cooray, 2002. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: Evidence on the Fisher Effect in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 3(2), pages 201-216, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:3:y:2002:i:2:p:201-216
    DOI: 10.1177/139156140200300205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/139156140200300205
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/139156140200300205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
    2. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1978. "Anticipated Inflation and Interest Rates: Further Interpretation of Findings on the Fisher Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 801-812, December.
    3. Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Richard J, 1994. "A Generalized R[superscript]2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variables Method," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 705-710, May.
    4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    6. Gibson, William E, 1970. "Price Expectations Effects on Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-34, March.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: AnAlternative Procedure," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 484-490, June.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1984. "A comparison of inflation forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 327-348, May.
    14. Thomas J. Sargent, 1969. "Commodity Price Expectations and the Interest Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(1), pages 127-140.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maghyereh, A. & Al-Zoubi, H., 2006. "Does Fisher Effect Apply in Developing Countries: Evidence From a Nonlinear Cotrending Test applied to Argentina, Brazil, Malysia, Mexico, Korea and Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    2. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    3. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    4. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    5. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Biswajit Maitra, 2018. "Determinants of Nominal Interest Rates in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 265-288, March.
    7. Ling, Tai-Hu & Venus, Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Khalid Wafa, Syed Azizi Wafa, 2008. "Does Fisher hypothesis hold for the East Asian Economies? an application of panel unit root tests," MPRA Paper 21601, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2010.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    2. Udo, Eli A. & Obiora, Isitua K., 2006. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A System Equations Approach," Conference papers 331519, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    4. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    5. Krzysztof Rybinski, 1997. "Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 127-179, May.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
    7. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Denise Côté & Doug Hostland, 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Staff Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Jens Weidmann, 1997. "New Hope for the Fisher Effect? A Re-Examination Using Threshold Cointegration," Macroeconomics 9705005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. A. E. Akinlo & A. F. Odusola, 2003. "Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 691-703.
    11. A. J. Aulton & C. T. Ennew & A. J. Rayner, 1997. "Efficiency Tests Of Futures Markets For Uk Agricultural Commodities," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 408-424, January.
    12. Walter Krämer, 1999. "Kointegration von Aktienkursen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(10), pages 915-936, October.
    13. Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2003. "Consumption and Wealth in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 39-56, March.
    14. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    15. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    16. Jean‐Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    17. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    18. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994. "Nonstationary Time Series and Cointegration: Recent Books and Themes for the Future," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1081, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Morel, Mindy, 2005. "The valuation relevance of R&D expenditures: Time series evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 304-325.
    20. Swee-Lean Chan, 2002. "Responses of selected economic indicators to construction output shocks: the case of Singapore," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 523-533.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:3:y:2002:i:2:p:201-216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.