IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lrc/larijb/v5y2015i1p47-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Navoda Edirisinghe

    (Assistant Lecturer, Department of Economics and Statistics, Faculty of Arts, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka,)

  • Selliah Sivarajasingham

    (Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics and Statistics, Faculty of Arts, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka,)

  • John Nigel

    (Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics and Statistics, Faculty of Arts, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka,)

Abstract

Maintaining price stability is one of the primary objectives of monetary policy in any economy as price instability, particularly high inflation, will cause to reduce economic growth by reducing investments and productivity growth. Therefore, investigating the existence of Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle is a necessary requirement in order to understand the nature, extent and dynamics of effective monetary policies in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to investigate the existence of short run and long run Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle in Sri Lanka. The results from co-integration technique, Error Correction Model (ECM) which employed in the study suggest that in Sri Lanka, nominal interest rates fully adjust for expected inflation in long-run. But in short-run, a significant positive association between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is there with absence of full Fisher Effect. Moreover the analysis has been extended and identified the existence of the Price Puzzle both in a short run and long run. Therefore, changes in monetary instruments do not appear to be completely effective in meeting the goal of low inflation. In order to solve this problem what we can recommend is, Sri Lanka should move towards inflation-targeting monetary policy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:47-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://thejournalofbusiness.org/index.php/site/article/view/685/493
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramya Hewarathna, 2000. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis in," Working Papers 2000.03, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
    3. Ling, Tai-Hu & Venus, Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Khalid Wafa, Syed Azizi Wafa, 2008. "Does Fisher hypothesis hold for the East Asian Economies? an application of panel unit root tests," MPRA Paper 21601, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2010.
    4. Ramya Hewarathna, 2000. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis in," Working Papers 2000.03, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    5. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Is the Fisher Effect Nonlinear? Some Evidence for Spain, 1963-2002," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/05, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. Ding Ding & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2011. "Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2011/081, International Monetary Fund.
    7. King Fuei Lee, 2009. "An Empirical Study Of The Fisher Effect And The Dynamic Relation Between Nominal Interest Rate And Inflation In Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(01), pages 75-88.
    8. Ewa M. Syczewska, 2010. "Empirical power of the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test," Working Papers 45, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    9. Arusha Cooray, 2002. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: Evidence on the Fisher Effect in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 3(2), pages 201-216, September.
    10. Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826, Elsevier.
    11. Nathan S. Balke & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Understanding the price puzzle," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 15-26.
    12. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
    14. Yuki Toyoshima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Panel cointegration analysis of the Fisher effect: Evidence from the US, the UK, and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2674-2682.
    15. Awomuse, Bernard O. & Alimi, Santos R., 2012. "The Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: New Evidence and Implication for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Blen Solomon & Isabel Ruiz, 2006. "Does The Price Puzzle Exist in Colombia? Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, April.
    17. Blen Solomon & Isabel Cristina Ruiz, 2006. "Does The Price Puzzle Exist in Colombia? Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 5469, Universidad EAFIT.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    2. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    3. Sunal, Onur, 2022. "The efficiency of primary sovereign bond markets in Turkey: The so-called Fisher puzzle reconsidered," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 255-261.
    4. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    5. King Fuei Lee, 2009. "An Empirical Study Of The Fisher Effect And The Dynamic Relation Between Nominal Interest Rate And Inflation In Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(01), pages 75-88.
    6. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Sevda Yapraklı, 2022. "The Validity of The Neo-Fisher Effect in The Period of Explicit Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 85-105, December.
    8. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.
    9. Cucciniello, Maria Chiara & Deleidi, Matteo & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-433.
    10. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    11. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    12. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    13. Helmut Herwartz & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Panel non stationary tests of the Fisher hypothesis in a world wide context. An analysis of 114 economies during the period 1960-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    14. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bosupeng, Mpho & Biza-Khupe, Simangaliso, 2015. "The Impact of Money Supply Volatility on the Fisher Effect –A Botswana Empirical Perspective," MPRA Paper 77920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    16. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    17. Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    18. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Nadeem Hanif, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination: Pakistan’s Experience," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 3-13.
    20. Panagiotis Pegkas & Constantinos Tsamadias, 2017. "Are There Separate Effects of Male and Female Higher Education on Economic Growth? Evidence from Greece," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 279-293, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; error correction model; Fishers effect; price puzzle; Sri Lanka.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:47-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Al Hossain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.thejournalofbusiness.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.