IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v35y2003i6p691-703.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation

Author

Listed:
  • A. E. Akinlo
  • A. F. Odusola

Abstract

empirical evidence in support of the argument that keeping real exchange rate persistently devalued may lead to a permanent higher level of inflation have been provided (Kamin, 1985; Calvo et al. 1994). However, probably because of the relatively recent origin of serious exchange rate depreciation in sub-Saharan Africa countries especially Nigeria, when compared with other regions e.g. Latin America and Asia, not many studies have been reported on the subject. The existing studies on effect of persistent exchange-rate depreciation in Nigeria are based on either regression or simulation approach rather than VAR approach. This present study intends to fill these gaps by not only focusing the study on Nigeria but also adopting restricted vector Autoregressive model thereby providing basis for comparison with existing results obtained for other countries.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • A. E. Akinlo & A. F. Odusola, 2003. "Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 691-703.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:6:p:691-703
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684032000056823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684032000056823
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0003684032000056823?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    4. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. James, John A, 1993. "Changes in Economic Instability in 19th-Century America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 710-731, September.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    12. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
    13. Nita Ghei & Miguel A. Kiguel & Stephen A. O’Connell, 1997. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Lessons from Eight Case Studies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Miguel A. Kiguel & J. Saul Lizondo & Stephen A. O’Connell (ed.), Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, chapter 1, pages 17-76, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    15. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February.
    16. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    17. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April.
    18. Turner, Paul Michael, 1993. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of the UK Business Cycle," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(2), pages 143-164, May.
    19. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    20. van Wijnbergen, S., 1982. "Stagflationary effects of monetary stabilization policies : A quantitative analysis of South Korea," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 133-169, April.
    21. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1983. "Credit policy, inflation and growth in a financially repressed economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 45-65.
    22. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    23. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke, 1984. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles: Evidence from Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 587-614.
    25. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84.
    26. Katseli, Louka T, 1983. "Devaluation: A Critical Appraisal of the IMF's Policy Prescriptions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 359-363, May.
    27. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Ismaila A. Yusuf, 2019. "Economic Stabilisation and Performance in West Africa: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/097, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Odusola, Ayodele, 2006. "Economics of Exchange Rate Management," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307341, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    3. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Bengisu Vural, 2006. "The effects of Japanese economic performance on Indonesia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 499-502.
    4. J. O. Olusi & M. A. Olagunju, 2005. "The Primary Sectors of the Economy and the Dutch Disease in Nigeria," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 159-175.
    5. Perekunah Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa & Solomon Olakojo & Mamello Nchake & Owen Nyang'oro & Edith Togba, 2016. "Nigeria: Should the Government Float or Devalue the Naira?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 247-263, September.
    6. Saibu M O, 2011. "Sectoral Output Responses to Trade Openness, Oil Price and Policy Shocks in Nigeria: A CVAR Approach," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 1(2), pages 48-59.
    7. Udo Ginikachi Cynthia & Nwezeaku Nathaniel Chinedum & Kanu Success Ikechi, 2021. "Effects of Capital Market Development on the Economic Growth of Nigeria," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 30-46, June.
    8. Hakan Berument & Eray Yucel, 2008. "Effects of USD-Euro parity on a small open economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(16), pages 2165-2174.
    9. Shi, Jianhuai, 2007. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," 2007: China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects Symposium, July 2007, Beijing, China 55020, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    10. W.A. Isola & E.P. Mesagan, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Small and Medium Enterprises’ Performance in Selected West African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(69), pages 14-23, September.
    11. Joseph Olufemi OGUNJOBI & Olufemi Adebayo OLADIPO (PhD) & Oluwasegun ESEYIN & Olaoluwa OPAOLA & Ishola James ARANSIOLA (PhD), 2022. "Exchange Rate and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Nigeria (1981-2019)," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 9(4), pages 89-101, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. ODUSOLA, Ayodele & AKINLO, Anthony, 2001. "Output, Inflation, And Exchange Rate In Developing Countries: An Application To Nigeria," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307343, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    2. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    3. Lanteri, Luis N., 2001. "Choques externos y reasignación sectorial de recursos. Evidencia para la economía argentina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 369-403, julio-sep.
    4. Kim, Yoonbai & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2007. "An empirical assessment of currency devaluation in East Asian countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-283, March.
    5. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    7. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    8. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    9. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 705-735, December.
    11. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, "undated". "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Staff Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
    12. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
    15. Dynnikova Oksana, 2000. "Real appreciation and output: Russia 1993—1997," EERC Working Paper Series 99-13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    16. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Julio Lopez & Ignocio Perrotini Perrotini, 2006. "On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(238), pages 221-242.
    18. Julio Lopez & Ignocio Perrotini Perrotini, 2006. "On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(238), pages 221-242.
    19. Julio López & Ignacio Perrotini, 2006. "Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 59(235), pages 233-256.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart. & Vicent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 10(20), pages 53-85, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:6:p:691-703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.