Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-007-9250-1
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Liesenfeld, Roman, 1998. "Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models: Modeling the Behavior of Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 101-109, January.
- Iversen, Torben & Soskice, David, 2006. "Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalitions: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 165-181, May.
- Leblang, David & Mukherjee, Bumba, 2004. "Presidential Elections and the Stock Market: Comparing Markov-Switching and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models of Volatility," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 296-322, July.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
- Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
- Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 541-560, September.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, April.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
"On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Adams, James & Merrill, Samuel, 2006. "Why Small, Centrist Third Parties Motivate Policy Divergence by Major Parties," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(3), pages 403-417, August.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Karpoff, Jonathan M, 1986. "A Theory of Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1069-1087, December.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bumba Mukherjee & David Leblang, 2007. "Partisan Politics, Interest Rates And The Stock Market: Evidence From American And British Returns In The Twentieth Century," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 135-167, July.
- Nathan Jensen, 2007.
"International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs,"
The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
- Nathan M Jensen, 2005. "International Institutions and Market Expectations: Stock Price Responses to the WTO Ruling on the 2002 U.S. Steel Tariffs," International Trade 0512008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
- Michael M. Bechtel & Roland F‹Ss, 2010.
"Capitalizing on Partisan Politics? The Political Economy of Sector-Specific Redistribution in Germany,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 203-235, March.
- Michael M. Bechtel & Roland Füss, 2010. "Capitalizing on Partisan Politics? The Political Economy of Sector‐Specific Redistribution in Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 203-235, March.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018. "An Event Study Analysis of Political Events, Disasters, and Accidents for Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-77, November.
- Yok-Yong Lee & M. H. Yahya & A. M. Bany-Ariffin & S. Aslam, 2018. "Leverage Effect and Switching of Market Efficiency Post Goods and Services Tax (GST) Imposition," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 162-178, March.
- Dutta, Shantanu & Essaddam, Naceur & Kumar, Vinod & Saadi, Samir, 2017. "How does electronic trading affect efficiency of stock market and conditional volatility? Evidence from Toronto Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 867-877.
- Catania, Leopoldo & Proietti, Tommaso, 2020.
"Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1301-1317.
- Leopoldo Catania & Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Forecasting Volatility with Time-Varying Leverage and Volatility of Volatility Effects," CEIS Research Paper 450, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 06 Feb 2019.
- Ghulam Ghouse & Aribah Aslam & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "Role of Islamic Banking during COVID-19 on Political and Financial Events: Application of Impulse Indicator Saturation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, October.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018.
"An Event Study of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
18-003/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018. "An event study of chinese tourists to Taiwan," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "An Event Study of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers 2018-003/III, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2005. "An Analysis of Political Changes on Nikkei 225 Stock Returns and Volatilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 169-183, May.
- Amin Aminimehr & Ali Raoofi & Akbar Aminimehr & Amirhossein Aminimehr, 2022. "A Comprehensive Study of Market Prediction from Efficient Market Hypothesis up to Late Intelligent Market Prediction Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 781-815, August.
- Zhao, Yixiu & Upreti, Vineet & Cai, Yuzhi, 2021. "Stock returns, quantile autocorrelation, and volatility forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Ilu, Ahmad Ibraheem, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass through to Stock Prices: A Multi GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 98442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020.
"Political Cycles and Stock Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malinda & Maya & Jo-Hui & Chen, 2022. "Testing for the Long Memory and Multiple Structural Breaks in Consumer ETFs," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-6.
- Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013.
"Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps,"
Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sebastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2012-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Presidential Cycles In The Usa And The Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate: Evidence From Over Two Centuries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 151-163, June.
- Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & José Álvarez-García & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2024. "An EM/MCMC Markov-Switching GARCH Behavioral Algorithm for Random-Length Lumber Futures Trading," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.
More about this item
Keywords
Government partisanship; Stock market performance; Elections; GARCH modeling; Political information; Price formation; C12; G12; G38;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:135:y:2008:i:3:p:131-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.