IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfb/journl/v13y2021i1p7-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Paritosh Chandra Sinha

Abstract

Do investors pay attention to the election-economics-politics (EEP) nexus in the stock markets? In examining this research problem during the 17th Lok Sabha Election in India, this study has explored the cointegrating relationships of its’ stock markets’ returns and realised trade volumes with investors’ selective attention to keywords in Google searches. The article has used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. It reveals ingenious findings that investors’ attention dynamics at EEP nexus cointegrate either with the market returns or traded-volumes. It also identifies investors’ attention myopia, where the cointegration twists once the nexus pulls off its election or economic factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2021. "Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 13(1), pages 7-32, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:7-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rfb.ase.ro/articole/Art1_v13june.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    3. Doriana Cucinelli & Vincenzo Farina & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2021. "Better the Devil You Know: The Impact of Brexit Political Uncertainty on European Financial Markets," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(6), pages 1-62, July.
    4. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    5. Robert R. Prechter Jr. & Deepak Goel & Wayne D. Parker & Matthew Lampert, 2012. "Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections," SAGE Open, , vol. 2(4), pages 21582440124, November.
    6. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    7. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    8. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    9. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2020. "When do retail investors pay attention to their trading platforms?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, 2009. "Can political factors explain the behaviour of stock prices beyond the standard present value models?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(23), pages 1873-1884.
    11. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    12. Charles A.E. Goodhart & M. Udara Peiris & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Debt, recovery rates and the Greek dilemma," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 13, pages 313-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    14. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2018. "Are BRICS Markets Equally Exposed to Trump’s Agenda?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(2), pages 1203-1233.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    18. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3471-3518. is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Li, Qingyuan & Li, Si & Xu, Li, 2018. "National elections and tail risk: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-128.
    21. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2014. "Predicting anomaly performance with politics, the weather, global warming, sunspots, and the stars," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 137-146.
    22. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    23. Jang-Ho Park, 2011. "The Economy and Elections in Korea: an Analysis of the Political Business Cycle," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 117-142, August.
    24. Schneider, Christina J. & Tobin, Jennifer L., 2020. "The Political Economy of Bilateral Bailouts," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-29, January.
    25. Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
    26. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    27. Ali Irannezhad Ajirlou & Hamidreza Esmalifalak & Maryam Esmalifalak & Sahar Pordeli Behrouz & Farid Soltanalizadeh, 2019. "Market Moods and Network Dynamics of Stock Returns: The Bipolar Behavior," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 239-254, April.
    28. Jawad M. Addoum & Alok Kumar, 2016. "Political Sentiment and Predictable Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3471-3518.
    29. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    30. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    31. Joshua Madsen & Marina Niessner, 2019. "Is Investor Attention for Sale? The Role of Advertising in Financial Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 763-795, June.
    32. Frank Bohn, 2019. "Political budget cycles, incumbency advantage, and propaganda," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 43-70, March.
    33. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2018. "Politics and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    34. Jae H. Kim, 2019. "Tackling False Positives In Business Research: A Statistical Toolbox With Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 862-895, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    2. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
    3. Di, Li & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich, 2021. "The power of investor sentiment in explaining bank stock performance: Listed conventional vs. Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. García, Israel & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. George Petrakos & Konstantinos Rontos & Luca Salvati & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2022. "Toward a political budget cycle? Unveiling long-term latent paths in Greece," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3379-3394, October.
    7. Roland Füss & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia In The Cross-Section of Global Equity," Working Papers on Finance 1913, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised May 2020.
    8. Roland Fuess & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Global Equity and Currency Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19116, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Frugier, Alain, 2016. "Returns, volatility and investor sentiment: Evidence from European stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-55.
    10. Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Electoral cycles in perceived corruption: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 215-224.
    11. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards A Self-Regulating, Participatory Market Society," Papers 1305.4078, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    13. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    14. Ziogas, Thanasis & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Revisiting the political economy of fiscal adjustments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
    16. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    17. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    18. Daryna Grechyna, 2024. "Elections and policies: Evidence from the Covid pandemic," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 812-831, August.
    19. Linda G. Veiga & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles: Conditioning Factors and New Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 21/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "The determinants of social expenditures in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 233-261, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:7-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tatu Lucian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ffasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.