IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v228y2014i3p230-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hidden Markov model framework for industrial maintenance activities

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Roblès
  • Manuel Avila
  • Florent Duculty
  • Pascal Vrignat
  • Stephane Bégot
  • Frédéric Kratz

Abstract

This article deals with modelization of industrial process by using hidden Markov model. The process is seen as a discrete event system. We propose different structures based on Markov automata, called topologies. A synthetic hidden Markov model is designed in order to match to a real industrial process. The models are intended to decode industrial maintenance observations (also called “symbol†). Symbols are produced with a corresponding degradation level (also called “state†). These 2-tuple (symbol, state) are known as Markov chains, also called “a signature.†Hence, these various 2-tuple are implemented in the proposed topologies by using the Baum–Welch learning algorithm (decoding by forward variable) and the segmental K-means learning (decoding by Viterbi). We assess different frameworks (topology, learning and decoding algorithm, distribution) by relevancy measurements on model outputs. Then, we determine the most relevant framework for use in maintenance activities. Afterward, we try to minimize the size of the learning data. Thus, we could evaluate the model by using “sliding windows†of data. Finally, an industrial application is developed and compared with this framework. Our goal is to improve worker safety, maintenance policy, process reliability and reduce CO 2 emissions in the industrial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Roblès & Manuel Avila & Florent Duculty & Pascal Vrignat & Stephane Bégot & Frédéric Kratz, 2014. "Hidden Markov model framework for industrial maintenance activities," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(3), pages 230-242, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:228:y:2014:i:3:p:230-242
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X14522458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X14522458
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X14522458?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Held & K. Rufibach & F. Balabdaoui, 2010. "A Score Regression Approach to Assess Calibration of Continuous Probabilistic Predictions," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 1295-1305, December.
    2. Shang, Junfeng & Cavanaugh, Joseph E., 2008. "Bootstrap variants of the Akaike information criterion for mixed model selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 2004-2021, January.
    3. Iooss, Bertrand & Ribatet, Mathieu, 2009. "Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1194-1204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drignei, Dorin, 2011. "A general statistical model for computer experiments with time series output," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 460-467.
    2. Simona Buscemi & Antonella Plaia, 2020. "Model selection in linear mixed-effect models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(4), pages 529-575, December.
    3. López-Lopera, Andrés F. & Idier, Déborah & Rohmer, Jérémy & Bachoc, François, 2022. "Multioutput Gaussian processes with functional data: A study on coastal flood hazard assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Braun, Julia & Sabanés Bové, Daniel & Held, Leonhard, 2014. "Choice of generalized linear mixed models using predictive crossvalidation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 190-202.
    5. Wei Wei & Leonhard Held, 2014. "Calibration tests for count data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 787-805, December.
    6. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Morales, Domingo & del Carmen Pardo, María, 2014. "Information criteria for Fay–Herriot model selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 268-280.
    7. Fábio Bayer & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2015. "Bootstrap-based model selection criteria for beta regressions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(4), pages 776-795, December.
    8. F. Grelot & J. Arnal & Pauline Bremond & Katrin Erdlenbruch & C. Durand & S. Durand & G. Gleyses & P. Jarnet & M. Liberti & S. Martini & A. Richard-Ferroudji & L. Albrecht & Jean-Stéphane Bailly & N. , 2009. "Risk perception and economic valuation of flood exposure. Study of two hydrologically contrasted territories [Perception du risque et évaluation économique de l'exposition aux inondations. Étude de," Working Papers hal-02593242, HAL.
    9. Julia Braun & Leonhard Held & Bruno Ledergerber, 2012. "Predictive Cross-validation for the Choice of Linear Mixed-Effects Models with Application to Data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 53-61, March.
    10. Sebastian Funk & Anton Camacho & Adam J Kucharski & Rachel Lowe & Rosalind M Eggo & W John Edmunds, 2019. "Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Ye, Dongwei & Nikishova, Anna & Veen, Lourens & Zun, Pavel & Hoekstra, Alfons G., 2021. "Non-intrusive and semi-intrusive uncertainty quantification of a multiscale in-stent restenosis model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Yu, Dalei & Zhang, Xinyu & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2013. "Information based model selection criteria for generalized linear mixed models with unknown variance component parameters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 245-262.
    13. Kin Yau Wong & Yair Goldberg & Jason P. Fine, 2016. "Oracle estimation of parametric models under boundary constraints," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1173-1183, December.
    14. Pierre Étoré & Clémentine Prieur & Dang Khoi Pham & Long Li, 2020. "Global Sensitivity Analysis for Models Described by Stochastic Differential Equations," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 803-831, June.
    15. Thomas Gkelsinis & Alex Karagrigoriou, 2020. "Theoretical Aspects on Measures of Directed Information with Simulations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-13, April.
    16. Shang, Junfeng & Cavanaugh, Joseph E., 2008. "An assumption for the development of bootstrap variants of the Akaike information criterion in mixed models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(12), pages 1422-1429, September.
    17. Emanuele Borgonovo & William Castaings & Stefano Tarantola, 2011. "Moment Independent Importance Measures: New Results and Analytical Test Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 404-428, March.
    18. Malte Knuppel & Fabian Kruger & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2022. "Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions," Papers 2211.16362, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    19. Roux, Sébastien & Loisel, Patrice & Buis, Samuel, 2019. "A filter-based approach for global sensitivity analysis of models with functional inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 119-128.
    20. Wei, Wei & Balabdaoui, Fadoua & Held, Leonhard, 2017. "Calibration tests for multivariate Gaussian forecasts," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 216-233.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:228:y:2014:i:3:p:230-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.