IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v31y2011i3p404-428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Moment Independent Importance Measures: New Results and Analytical Test Cases

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele Borgonovo
  • William Castaings
  • Stefano Tarantola

Abstract

Moment independent methods for the sensitivity analysis of model output are attracting growing attention among both academics and practitioners. However, the lack of benchmarks against which to compare numerical strategies forces one to rely on ad hoc experiments in estimating the sensitivity measures. This article introduces a methodology that allows one to obtain moment independent sensitivity measures analytically. We illustrate the procedure by implementing four test cases with different model structures and model input distributions. Numerical experiments are performed at increasing sample size to check convergence of the sensitivity estimates to the analytical values.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Borgonovo & William Castaings & Stefano Tarantola, 2011. "Moment Independent Importance Measures: New Results and Analytical Test Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 404-428, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:404-428
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01519.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01519.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01519.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Storlie, Curtis B. & Swiler, Laura P. & Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1735-1763.
    2. Ronald L. Iman & Mark E. Johnson & Charles C. Watson, 2005. "Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1299-1312, October.
    3. B. J. Garrick, 2010. "Interval Analysis Versus Probabilistic Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 369-370, March.
    4. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    5. Harvey M. Wagner, 1995. "Global Sensitivity Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 948-969, December.
    6. Saltelli A. & Tarantola S., 2002. "On the Relative Importance of Input Factors in Mathematical Models: Safety Assessment for Nuclear Waste Disposal," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 702-709, September.
    7. Terje Aven, 2010. "On the Need for Restricting the Probabilistic Analysis in Risk Assessments to Variability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 354-360, March.
    8. Crestaux, Thierry & Le Maıˆtre, Olivier & Martinez, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Polynomial chaos expansion for sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1161-1172.
    9. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
    10. Jeremy E. Oakley & Anthony O'Hagan, 2004. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 751-769, August.
    11. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2006. "Measuring Uncertainty Importance: Investigation and Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1349-1361, October.
    12. Ronald L. Iman & Stephen C. Hora, 1990. "A Robust Measure of Uncertainty Importance for Use in Fault Tree System Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), pages 401-406, September.
    13. Iooss, Bertrand & Ribatet, Mathieu, 2009. "Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1194-1204.
    14. Sumeet R. Patil & H. Christopher Frey, 2004. "Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Based on Applications to a Food Safety Risk Assessment Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 573-585, June.
    15. M. Saisana & A. Saltelli & S. Tarantola, 2005. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(2), pages 307-323, March.
    16. Ronald L. Iman & Mark E. Johnson & Charles C. Watson, 2005. "Sensitivity Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1277-1297, October.
    17. Robin L. Dillon & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Seth D. Guikema, 2003. "Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, June.
    18. Andrea Saltelli, 2002. "Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 579-590, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pengfei Wei & Zhenzhou Lu & Jingwen Song, 2014. "Uncertainty Importance Analysis Using Parametric Moment Ratio Functions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 223-234, February.
    2. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S. H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I. M. Halman & Wim van de Linde & Frank Kaalberg, 2014. "Using Prior Risk‐Related Knowledge to Support Risk Management Decisions: Lessons Learnt from a Tunneling Project," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1923-1943, October.
    3. Elmar Plischke & Emanuele Borgonovo, 2020. "Fighting the Curse of Sparsity: Probabilistic Sensitivity Measures From Cumulative Distribution Functions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2639-2660, December.
    4. Tatsuya Sakurahara & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2020. "Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 377-396, April.
    5. Shirin Karimi & Bahman Jabbarian Amiri & Arash Malekian, 2019. "Similarity Metrics-Based Uncertainty Analysis of River Water Quality Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1927-1945, April.
    6. Manel Baucells & Emanuele Borgonovo, 2013. "Invariant Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2536-2549, November.
    7. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    8. Gamboa, Fabrice & Klein, Thierry & Lagnoux, Agnès & Moreno, Leonardo, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis in general metric spaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Dawei Zhang & Weilin Li & Xiaohua Wu & Tie Liu, 2018. "An Efficient Regional Sensitivity Analysis Method Based on Failure Probability with Hybrid Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Andreas Tsanakas & Pietro Millossovich, 2016. "Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 30-48, January.
    11. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐Jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2014. "Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 323-339, February.
    12. Xin Xu & Zhenzhou Lu & Xiaopeng Luo, 2014. "A Stable Approach Based on Asymptotic Space Integration for Moment‐Independent Uncertainty Importance Measure," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 235-251, February.
    13. Song, Yupeng & Sun, Tao & Zhang, Zili, 2023. "Fatigue reliability analysis of floating offshore wind turbines considering the uncertainty due to finite sampling of load conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 570-588.
    14. Derennes, Pierre & Morio, Jérôme & Simatos, Florian, 2019. "A nonparametric importance sampling estimator for moment independent importance measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 3-16.
    15. Limao Zhang & Xianguo Wu & Yawei Qin & Miroslaw J. Skibniewski & Wenli Liu, 2016. "Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel‐Induced Pipeline Damage," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 278-301, February.
    16. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    17. Yishang Zhang & Yongshou Liu & Xufeng Yang & Bin Zhao, 2015. "An efficient Kriging method for global sensitivity of structural reliability analysis with non-probabilistic convex model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(5), pages 442-455, October.
    18. Zdeněk Kala, 2020. "Sensitivity Analysis in Probabilistic Structural Design: A Comparison of Selected Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Liu, Fuchao & Wei, Pengfei & Tang, Chenghu & Wang, Pan & Yue, Zhufeng, 2019. "Global sensitivity analysis for multivariate outputs based on multiple response Gaussian process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 287-298.
    20. Pengfei Wei & Zhenzhou Lu & Jingwen Song, 2014. "Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 210-222, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    2. Emanuele Borgonovo & Gordon B. Hazen & Elmar Plischke, 2016. "A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1871-1895, October.
    3. Isadora Antoniano‐Villalobos & Emanuele Borgonovo & Sumeda Siriwardena, 2018. "Which Parameters Are Important? Differential Importance Under Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2459-2477, November.
    4. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    5. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2006. "Measuring Uncertainty Importance: Investigation and Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1349-1361, October.
    6. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2008. "Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output with Input Constraints: A Generalized Rationale for Local Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 667-680, June.
    7. Elmar Plischke & Emanuele Borgonovo, 2020. "Fighting the Curse of Sparsity: Probabilistic Sensitivity Measures From Cumulative Distribution Functions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2639-2660, December.
    8. Tatsuya Sakurahara & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2020. "Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 377-396, April.
    9. Sinan Xiao & Zhenzhou Lu & Pan Wang, 2018. "Multivariate Global Sensitivity Analysis Based on Distance Components Decomposition," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2703-2721, December.
    10. Xing Liu & Enrico Zio & Emanuele Borgonovo & Elmar Plischke, 2024. "A Systematic Approach of Global Sensitivity Analysis and Its Application to a Model for the Quantification of Resilience of Interconnected Critical Infrastructures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-24, April.
    11. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2010. "A Methodology for Determining Interactions in Probabilistic Safety Assessment Models by Varying One Parameter at a Time," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 385-399, March.
    12. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    13. Pengfei Wei & Zhenzhou Lu & Jingwen Song, 2014. "Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 210-222, February.
    14. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Smith, Curtis L., 2013. "Global sensitivity measures from given data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(3), pages 536-550.
    15. Wu, Zeping & Wang, Wenjie & Wang, Donghui & Zhao, Kun & Zhang, Weihua, 2019. "Global sensitivity analysis using orthogonal augmented radial basis function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 291-302.
    16. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    17. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 117-139, November.
    18. Wenbin Ruan & Zhenzhou Lu & Pengfei Wei, 2013. "Estimation of conditional moment by moving least squares and its application for importance analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(6), pages 641-650, December.
    19. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    20. Melito, Gian Marco & Müller, Thomas Stephan & Badeli, Vahid & Ellermann, Katrin & Brenn, Günter & Reinbacher-Köstinger, Alice, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis study on the effect of the fluid mechanics assumptions for the computation of electrical conductivity of flowing human blood," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:404-428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.