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Expert elicitation of a navigation service implementation effects on ship groundings and collisions in the Gulf of Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Hänninen
  • Arsham Mazaheri
  • Pentti Kujala
  • Jakub Montewka
  • Pekka Laaksonen
  • Maija Salmiovirta
  • Mikko Klang

Abstract

When considering the implementation of a novel risk-control option, the estimation of its possible effects often relies on expert elicitation. This article presents an expert-knowledge–based preliminary assessment of how the deployment of Enhanced Navigation Support Information navigation service would affect the ship collisions and groundings in the Gulf of Finland. Experts probabilistically assess the service’s direct effects on various factors, which are then utilized in collision and grounding probability Bayesian network models. The results indicate that implementing the Enhanced Navigation Support Information service could decrease the number of accidents. However, a comparison of the model outcomes to the experts’ qualitative opinions reveals some discrepancies, which suggest that the elicitation procedure or the applied models might require further improvement. Nevertheless, with the proposed Bayesian approach, the model can be updated and uncertainties in the estimates reduced after more evidences are available later from longer and wider use of the service.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Hänninen & Arsham Mazaheri & Pentti Kujala & Jakub Montewka & Pekka Laaksonen & Maija Salmiovirta & Mikko Klang, 2014. "Expert elicitation of a navigation service implementation effects on ship groundings and collisions in the Gulf of Finland," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(1), pages 19-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:228:y:2014:i:1:p:19-28
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X13494533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hänninen, Maria & Kujala, Pentti, 2012. "Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 27-40.
    2. Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2011. "Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 91-107.
    3. Aven, Terje & Guikema, Seth, 2011. "Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(10), pages 1257-1262.
    4. Kujala, P. & Hänninen, M. & Arola, T. & Ylitalo, J., 2009. "Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1349-1357.
    5. Montewka, Jakub & Hinz, Tomasz & Kujala, Pentti & Matusiak, Jerzy, 2010. "Probability modelling of vessel collisions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 573-589.
    6. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo, 2018. "Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 38-56.
    2. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Innes-Jones, Gemma & Owen, Douglas & Hifi, Yasmine & Puisa, Romanas, 2017. "Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 283-300.
    3. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    4. Valdez Banda, Osiris A. & Kannos, Sirpa & Goerlandt, Floris & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M. & Bergström, Martin & Kujala, Pentti, 2019. "A systemic hazard analysis and management process for the concept design phase of an autonomous vessel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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