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The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections

Author

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  • Arcelus, Francisco
  • Meltzer, Allan H.

Abstract

This paper uses rational voting behavior as an organizing device to develop a framework within which to consider the effect of economic aggregates on voters. Unlike most previous studies, ours permits the voter to vote for candidates of either party or to abstain. A principal finding is that the effect of the main economic aggregates on the participation rate is much clearer than the effects on either party. Our results deny that an incumbent administration can affect the control of Congress by stimulating the economy. Voters appear to make judgments about inflation, unemployment and economic growth. We investigated on the basis of long-term, not short-term performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Arcelus, Francisco & Meltzer, Allan H., 1975. "The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1232-1239, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:69:y:1975:i:04:p:1232-1239_24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew J. Lebo & Janet M. Box‐Steffensmeier, 2008. "Dynamic Conditional Correlations in Political Science," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 688-704, July.
    2. W. Mark Crain & Thomas H. Deaton & Robert D. Tollison, 1978. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Vote in Presidential Elections," Public Finance Review, , vol. 6(4), pages 427-438, October.
    3. Walker A. Pollard, 1983. "Presidential Elections: Cyclical and Distributional Economic Effects," Public Finance Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 217-236, April.
    4. Frey, Bruno S., 1978. "Politico-economic models and cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 203-220, April.
    5. Parinandi, Srinivas & Hitt, Matthew P., 2018. "How Politics Influences the Energy Pricing Decisions of Elected Public Utilities Commissioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 77-87.
    6. Rausser, Gordon C. & de Gorter, Harry, 1988. "Endogenizing policy in models of agricultural markets," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt18z7n1qz, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    7. Joseph McGarrity, 2001. "Vote share and return rates: A comparison of two measures of election outcomes," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(3), pages 294-303, September.
    8. David Knoke & Anne Macke & Marcus Felson, 1980. "Using social indicators to forecast partisan alignments in congressional election years," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 47-61, January.
    9. Ryan Amacher & William Boyes, 1982. "Unemployment rates and political outcomes: An incentive for manufacturing a political business cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 197-203, January.
    10. Rausser, Gordon C. & Gorter, Harry De, 1988. "Endogenizing Policy in Models of Agricultural Markets," 1988 Conference, August 24-31, 1988, Buenos Aires, Argentina 183120, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6182, CESifo.
    12. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2005. "Repercusiones electorales del Consenso de Washington," Research Department Publications 4406, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2005. "The Electoral Consequences of the Washington Consensus," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-61, January.
    14. Garey Durden & Patricia Gaynor, 1987. "The rational behavior theory of voting participation: Evidence from the 1970 and 1982 elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 231-242, January.
    15. Ahmed, Rashad & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 662-687.
    16. Bharatee Bhusana Dash & J. Stephen Ferris, 2018. "Economic Performance and Electoral Volatility: Testing the Economic Voting Hypothesis on Indian States, 1957–2013," Carleton Economic Papers 18-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    17. Joseph McGarrity, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and committee re-election rates," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 453-480, September.
    18. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:427-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Robert Michaels, 1986. "Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 113-124, January.

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