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Party Size Baselines Imposed by Institutional Constraints

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  • Rein Taagepera

Abstract

This theory specifies the party sizes expected on the basis of constraints imposed by simple electoral rules. Duverger's law and hypothesis states that under the single-member plurality rule third parties tend to be eliminated, while proportional representation in multi-seat districts enables more than two parties to thrive. Expanding on Duverger' statements, the seat and vote shares of parties at all size ranks are calculated here, using nothing but two institutional inputs (district magnitude and assembly size) plus the number of voters. These are the baseline values expected if (and only if) institutional constraints were the only factor, with other factors balancing themselves out. The theory is complete in the sense of leading to complete party size structure. Among the relatively simple electoral systems the institutional baselines do reflect the long-term averages in New Zealand, while the residuals indicate the imbalance of inputs by other factors in the case of The Netherlands and Finland, and especially in the case of the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Rein Taagepera, 2001. "Party Size Baselines Imposed by Institutional Constraints," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 13(4), pages 331-354, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:13:y:2001:i:4:p:331-354
    DOI: 10.1177/0951692801013004001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taagepera, Rein & Shugart, Matthew Soberg, 1993. "Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger's Mechanical Effect," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 455-464, June.
    2. Rein Taagepera, 1999. "Ignorance-Based Quantitative Models and Their Practical Implications," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 11(3), pages 421-431, July.
    3. Theil, Henri, 1969. "The Desired Political Entropy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 521-525, June.
    4. Taagepera, Rein, 1986. "Reformulating the Cube Law for Proportional Representation Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 489-504, June.
    5. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josep M. Colomer, 2005. "It's parties that choose electoral systems (or Duverger's Law upside down)," Economics Working Papers 812, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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