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Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger's Mechanical Effect

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  • Taagepera, Rein
  • Shugart, Matthew Soberg

Abstract

The mechanical effect of electoral systems, identified by Maurice Duverger, can be estimated by means of a quantitative model. The model predicts the range within which the effective number of parties in a district should fall for a given magnitude (number of seats) of the district. At the national level, a related model predicts the effective number of parties based on the effective magnitude and the number of seats in the national assembly. The institutional variables considered—magnitude and assembly size—define a great portion of the structural constraints within which a given country's politics must take place. The model developed provides a good fit to data in spite of its having been developed from outrageously simple starting assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Taagepera, Rein & Shugart, Matthew Soberg, 1993. "Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger's Mechanical Effect," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 455-464, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:87:y:1993:i:02:p:455-464_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Rostislav Turovsky & Elizabeth Luizidis, 2021. "Autonomy Of Subnational Party Systems: Comparative Analysis Of Federations," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/PS/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Stefan Voigt, 2011. "Positive constitutional economics II—a survey of recent developments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 205-256, January.
    3. Paulo Trigo Pereira & João Andrade e Silva, 2007. "Citizens’ Freedom to Choose Representatives: Ballot Structure, Proportionality and “Fragmented” Parliaments," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/13, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Foremny, Dirk, 2014. "Sub-national deficits in European countries: The impact of fiscal rules and tax autonomy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-110.
    5. Jürgen von Hagen, 2002. "Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Institutions, and Fiscal Performance," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 263-284.
    6. De Santo, Alessia & Le Maux, Benoît, 2023. "On the optimal size of legislatures: An illustrated literature review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
    8. Bishop, Matthew Louis & Corbett, Jack & Veenendaal, Wouter, 2020. "Labor movements and party system development: Why does the Caribbean have stable two-party systems, but the Pacific does not?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Hagen, Jürgen von, 2005. "Political Economy of Fiscal Institutions," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 149, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    10. Michael Herrmann, 2014. "Polls, coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(3), pages 442-467, July.
    11. Peter Mayer, 2013. "Gross Violations of Duverger’s Law in India," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 1(2), pages 179-201, December.
    12. Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 209-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Rein Taagepera, 2001. "Party Size Baselines Imposed by Institutional Constraints," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 13(4), pages 331-354, October.
    14. Mariano Tommasi & Pablo T. Spiller, 2004. "The Institutions of Regulation," Working Papers 67, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Mar 2004.
    15. Yläoutinen, Sami, 2004. "The role of electoral and party systems in the development of fiscal institutions in the Central and Eastern European countries," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    16. von Hagen, Jürgen, 1998. "Budgeting institutions for aggregate fiscal discipline," ZEI Working Papers B 01-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    17. Hallerberg, Mark, 2000. "The importance of domestic political institutions: Why and how Belgium and Italy qualified for EMU," ZEI Working Papers B 10-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    18. Arvate, Paulo Roberto, 2013. "Electoral Competition and Local Government Responsiveness in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-83.

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