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Does the Red Flag Rule Induce Risk Taking in Sprint Finishes? Moral Hazard Crashes in Cycling’s Grand Tours

Author

Listed:
  • Travis J. Lybbert
  • Troy C. Lybbert
  • Aaron Smith
  • Scott Warren

Abstract

Sprint finishes in professional cycling are fast, furious, and dangerous. A “red flag rule†(RFR) seeks to moderate the chaos of these finishes, but may induce moral hazard by removing the time penalty associated with crashing. To test for moral hazard, the authors use a 2005 rule change that moved the red flag from 1 km to 3 km from the finish. Data from Europe’s Grand Tours indicate that, after the rule change, both the incidence and the size of crashes nearly doubled in the 1–3 km from the finish zone. There was no such increase in crashing rates in the 3–5 km zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Lybbert & Troy C. Lybbert & Aaron Smith & Scott Warren, 2012. "Does the Red Flag Rule Induce Risk Taking in Sprint Finishes? Moral Hazard Crashes in Cycling’s Grand Tours," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(6), pages 603-618, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:13:y:2012:i:6:p:603-618
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002511412077
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Brouwer, Thijs & Potters, Jan, 2019. "Friends for (almost) a day: Studying breakaways in cycling races," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).

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