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No better time than now: Future uncertainty and private investment under dictatorship

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  • Michael Albertus
  • Victor Gay

Abstract

Despite received wisdom that long time horizons and formal institutions can induce private investment under dictatorship, there is substantial investment even in relatively unconstrained regimes. This paper provides a novel explanation for the puzzle of investment in these regimes: economic elites’ uncertainty over expected investment returns under plausible alternative authoritarian successors. We construct a noisy signaling model that captures how uncertainty over which type of authoritarian successor will rule next and uncertainty in the truthfulness of policy promises made by potential autocratic successors might provide incentives for elite investment.

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  • Michael Albertus & Victor Gay, 2019. "No better time than now: Future uncertainty and private investment under dictatorship," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:31:y:2019:i:1:p:71-96
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12120
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    Cited by:

    1. François, Abel & Panel, Sophie & Weill, Laurent, 2020. "Educated dictators attract more foreign direct investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 37-55.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Abel FRANCOIS & Sophie PANEL & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Are Some Dictators More Attractive to Foreign Investors?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    4. Abel FRANCOIS & Sophie PANEL & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Are Some Dictators More Attractive to Foreign Investors?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.

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