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Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula

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  • Jordan Bernhardt
  • Lauren Sukin

Abstract

A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, demonstrating that North Korea views JMEs as a serious threat to its security. In this paper, we establish a relationship between JMEs and North Korea’s actions. In response to a JME, North Korea can issue warnings or threats as well as take costly signals such as conducting missile or nuclear tests. Using new data on JMEs and North Korean behavior, we find that North Korea systematically responds with aggression to South Korean JMEs. Moreover, we find that the intensity of North Korea’s responses to JMEs is driven by the severity of the threat particular exercises pose, indicating that North Korea responds to JMEs as serious security threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan Bernhardt & Lauren Sukin, 2021. "Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(5), pages 855-888, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:5:p:855-888
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720972180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yan & Zhang, Ruiqian & Lyu, Jiayi & Hou, Yuqi, 2024. "AI and Nuclear: A perfect intersection of danger and potential?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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