IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v48y2004i1p56-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Karl DeRouen Jr.

    (School of Political Science and Communication, University of Canterbury, New Zealand)

  • Christopher Sprecher

    (Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University)

Abstract

Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for the years 1918 to 1994, using crisis actors from the International Crisis Behavior data set. Results show that domestic political loss has a negative impact on the use of violence in response to a crisis trigger. Contiguity, joint democracy, and trigger are also significant in the expected directions. Relative capabilities have a positive impact, and enduring rivals do not appear more likely to use violence against each other as a first response in a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl DeRouen Jr. & Christopher Sprecher, 2004. "Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(1), pages 56-68, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:48:y:2004:i:1:p:56-68
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002703260271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002703260271
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002703260271?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnson, Eric J & Meyer, Robert J, 1984. "Compensatory Choice Models of Noncompensatory Processes: The Effect of Varying Context," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 11(1), pages 528-541, June.
    2. Ostrom, Charles W. & Job, Brian L., 1986. "The President and the Political Use of Force," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 541-566, June.
    3. Steiner, Miriam, 1983. "The search for order in a disorderly world: worldviews and prescriptive decision paradigms," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 373-413, July.
    4. Brannick, Michael T. & Brannick, Joan P., 1989. "Nonlinear and noncompensatory processes in performance evaluation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 97-122, August.
    5. Mintz, Alex & Geva, Nehemia & Redd, Steven B. & Carnes, Amy, 1997. "The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 553-566, September.
    6. Simon, Herbert A., 1985. "Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 293-304, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Mintz, 2004. "How Do Leaders Make Decisions?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(1), pages 3-13, February.
    2. Steven B. Redd, 2002. "The Influence of Advisers on Foreign Policy Decision Making," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(3), pages 335-364, June.
    3. Nehemia Geva & James Mayhar & J. Mark Skorick, 2000. "The Cognitive Calculus of Foreign Policy Decision Making," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(4), pages 447-471, August.
    4. Jonathan W. Keller & Yi Edward Yang, 2008. "Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(5), pages 687-712, October.
    5. Alex Mintz, 2004. "Foreign Policy Decision Making in Familiar and Unfamiliar Settings," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(1), pages 91-104, February.
    6. Alex Mintz & Steven B. Redd & Arnold Vedlitz, 2006. "Can We Generalize from Student Experiments to the Real World in Political Science, Military Affairs, and International Relations?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(5), pages 757-776, October.
    7. Alex Mintz, 1993. "The Decision to Attack Iraq," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 595-618, December.
    8. Saba Siddiki & Xavier Basurto & Christopher M. Weible, 2012. "Using the institutional grammar tool to understand regulatory compliance: The case of Colorado aquaculture," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 167-188, June.
    9. Hosseini, Hamid, 2003. "The arrival of behavioral economics: from Michigan, or the Carnegie School in the 1950s and the early 1960s?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 391-409, September.
    10. Seidl, C. & Traub, S., 1996. "Rational Choice and the Relevance of Irrelevant Alternatives," Other publications TiSEM 26452450-9ecd-45b4-bc45-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Oeindrila Dube & S.P. Harish, 2017. "Queens," NBER Working Papers 23337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kyle Haynes, 2017. "Diversionary conflict: Demonizing enemies or demonstrating competence?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(4), pages 337-358, July.
    13. Paul K. Huth, 1998. "Major Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(6), pages 744-770, December.
    14. Elrod, Terry & Johnson, Richard D. & White, Joan, 2004. "A new integrated model of noncompensatory and compensatory decision strategies," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Carly Beckerman, 2022. "Political Fragility and the Timing of Conflict Mediation," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Williamson, Oliver, 2009. "The Theory of the Firm as Governance Structure: From Choice to Contract," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 111-134, December.
    17. Cheng, Andong & Meloy, Margaret G. & Polman, Evan, 2021. "Picking Gifts for Picky People," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 191-206.
    18. Eben J. Christensen & Steven B. Redd, 2004. "Bureaucrats Versus the Ballot Box in Foreign Policy Decision Making," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(1), pages 69-90, February.
    19. Olsen, Nina Veflen & Storstad, Oddveig & Samuelsen, Bendik & Langsrud, Solveig & Hagtvedt, Therese & Gregersen, Fredrik & Ueland, Øydis, 2016. "Food Scares: Reflections and Reactions," 2016 International European Forum (151st EAAE Seminar), February 15-19, 2016, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 244480, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    20. Susan Hannah Allen, 2008. "The Domestic Political Costs of Economic Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(6), pages 916-944, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:48:y:2004:i:1:p:56-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.