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Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs

Author

Listed:
  • Steven J. Brams

    (Department of Politics, New York University)

  • D. Marc Kilgour

    (Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

Game-theoretic models of deterrence and escalation, based on Chicken and Prisoners' Dilemma, are developed in which two players can initially choose any level of preemption in a crisis (Deterrence Game) or escalation in an arms race (Deescalation Game). The greater this level, the more likely an opponent will interpret this choice as a noncooperative action and retaliate. Given that both players make noncooperative choices in these games—either initially or in retaliation—a probability of winding down is postulated whereby the playes can escape either the mutually worst outcome in the Deterrence Game (which becomes the Winding-Down Game) or the mutually next-worst outcome in the Deescalation Game (which becomes the Arms-Reduction Game). In both games, as the probability of winding down increases, the threat of retaliation must also increase—and at an increasing rate—to preserve the stability of mutual deterrence and mutual deescalation. Implications of these findings, especially for encouraging mutual cooperation between the superpowers, via both deterrence and defense (“Star Wars†), are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1987. "Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 547-572, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:4:p:547-572
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031004001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudolf Avenhaus & John Fichtner & Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1989. "The Probability of Nuclear War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 26(1), pages 91-99, February.
    2. Brams, Steven J. & Kilgour, D. Marc, 1986. "Notes on Arms-Control Verification: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," Working Papers 86-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    3. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    4. Brams, Steven J. & Kilgour, D. Marc, 1987. "Threat Escalation and Crisis Stability: A Game-theoretic Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 833-850, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Frank P. Harvey, 1999. "Practicing Coercion," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(6), pages 840-871, December.

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