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The Probability of Nuclear War

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  • Avenhaus, Rudolf
  • Brams, Steven J.
  • Fichtner, John
  • Kilgour, D. Marc

Abstract

A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.
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Suggested Citation

  • Avenhaus, Rudolf & Brams, Steven J. & Fichtner, John & Kilgour, D. Marc, 1986. "The Probability of Nuclear War," Working Papers 86-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:86-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Rendall, 2022. "Nuclear war as a predictable surprise," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 782-791, November.
    2. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1987. "Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 547-572, December.

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