IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/anname/v550y1997i1p85-95.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasts and Decisions on Economic Pacts in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • ROBERTO LEY-BORRAS

Abstract

For the last nine years, the Mexican federal government has followed a policy of building agreements (pacts) between the main economic groups for the sake of economic development and social stability. During 1995, under the North American Free Trade Agreement and other economic and political forces, the pact policy has been under unusual pressure. In this article, national agreements are modeled as the outcomes of political conflicts. The model generates a probabilistic forecast of the type of agreement (from sustainable pacts to paper pacts to no pact at all). A basic modeling assumption is that each group can choose between helping to bake the cake and fighting to get a larger share of it, and that the desirability of each type of agreement will be largely determined by that choice. Using the forecast, we build a decision model for choosing the best set of current gains and expectations that the government can offer to other actors.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Ley-Borras, 1997. "Forecasts and Decisions on Economic Pacts in Mexico," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 550(1), pages 85-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:550:y:1997:i:1:p:85-95
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716297550001007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716297550001007
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0002716297550001007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luterbacher Urs, 2004. "Conflict and Irrevocable Decisions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Paul D. Senese, 1997. "Costs and Demands," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 407-427, June.
    3. Edward P. Lazear, 2000. "Economic Imperialism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 99-146.
    4. Kevin J. Sweeney, 2003. "The Severity of Interstate Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(6), pages 728-750, December.
    5. Grace Iusi Scarborough, 1988. "Polarity, Power, and Risk in International Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 511-533, September.
    6. Paul A. Kowert & Margaret G. Hermann, 1997. "Who Takes Risks?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(5), pages 611-637, October.
    7. Timothy Mathews & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2019. "Conflict without an Apparent Cause," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, October.
    8. Hemda Ben-Yehuda, 1999. "Opportunity Crises: Framework and Findings, 1918-1994," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(1), pages 69-102, February.
    9. Samuel S. G. Wu, 1990. "To Attack or Not to Attack," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 531-552, September.
    10. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2019. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107591370, September.
    11. Gregory M. Herek & Irving L. Janis & Paul Huth, 1987. "Decision Making during International Crises," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 203-226, June.
    12. Carlos Seiglie, 1999. "Altruism, Foreign Aid and Humanitarian Military Intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(2), pages 207-223, September.
    13. Patrick James & John R. Oneal, 1991. "The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 307-332, June.
    14. Julia Macdonald & Jacquelyn Schneider, 2017. "Presidential Risk Orientation and Force Employment Decisions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(3), pages 511-536, March.
    15. Jonathan J Adams, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Armies," Working Papers 001002, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    16. Chae-Han Kim, 1991. "Third-Party Participation in Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 659-677, December.
    17. Gil Friedman, 2005. "Commercial Pacifism and Protracted Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(3), pages 360-382, June.
    18. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1987. "Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 547-572, December.
    19. Jason B Scholz & Gregory J Calbert & Glen A Smith, 2011. "Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 510-531, October.
    20. John A. C. Conybeare, 1992. "A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 53-85, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:550:y:1997:i:1:p:85-95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.