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What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models?

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  • Peter Z. Schochet
  • Hanley S. Chiang

Abstract

This article addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using a realistic performance measurement system scheme based on hypothesis testing, the authors develop error rate formulas based on ordinary least squares and Empirical Bayes estimators. Empirical results suggest that value-added estimates are likely to be noisy using the amount of data that are typically used in practice. Type I and II error rates for comparing a teacher’s performance to the average are likely to be about 25% with 3 years of data and 35% with 1 year of data. Corresponding error rates for overall false positive and negative errors are 10% and 20%, respectively. Lower error rates can be achieved if schools are the performance unit. The results suggest that policymakers must carefully consider likely system error rates when using value-added estimates to make high-stakes decisions regarding educators.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Z. Schochet & Hanley S. Chiang, 2013. "What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models?," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 38(2), pages 142-171, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jedbes:v:38:y:2013:i:2:p:142-171
    DOI: 10.3102/1076998611432174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Blazar, David, 2015. "Effective teaching in elementary mathematics: Identifying classroom practices that support student achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-29.
    3. Backes, Ben & Cowan, James & Goldhaber, Dan & Koedel, Cory & Miller, Luke C. & Xu, Zeyu, 2018. "The common core conundrum: To what extent should we worry that changes to assessments will affect test-based measures of teacher performance?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 48-65.
    4. Koedel, Cory & Mihaly, Kata & Rockoff, Jonah E., 2015. "Value-added modeling: A review," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 180-195.
    5. Marianne Bitler & Sean Corcoran & Thurston Domina & Emily Penner, 2019. "Teacher Effects on Student Achievement and Height: A Cautionary Tale," NBER Working Papers 26480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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