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The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Demand

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  • Greg Howard

Abstract

What is the role of migration in regional evolutions? I document that within-US migration causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of the receiving city over several years. To establish this causal effect, I construct an instrument using out-migration of other places and predict its destination from historical patterns. The decline in unemployment is due to housing. Housing is durable, so increased demand causes a surge of new houses and construction jobs. Additionally, migrants' housing demand raises prices, increasing borrowing and nontradable employment. This finding implies the endogenous response of migration amplifies local labor demand shocks by about a third.

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  • Greg Howard, 2020. "The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Demand," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 147-179, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:147-79
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180363
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    1. Molly Fifer McIntosh, 2008. "Measuring the Labor Market Impacts of Hurricane Katrina Migration: Evidence from Houston, Texas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 54-57, May.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Room in the Kitchen for the Melting Pot: Immigration and Rental Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 502-521, August.
    3. Dakshina G. De Silva & Robert P. McComb & Young-Kyu Moh & Anita R. Schiller & Andres J. Vargas, 2010. "The Effect of Migration on Wages: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 321-326, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diogo Baerlocher & Gustavo Cortes & Vinicios Sant'Anna, 2024. "Finding Home When Disaster Strikes: Dust Bowl Migration and Housing in Los Angeles," Working Papers 2024-05, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    2. Jan K. Brueckner & Matthew E. Kahn & Gary C. Lin, 2023. "A New Spatial Hedonic Equilibrium in the Emerging Work-from-Home Economy?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-319, April.
    3. Michael A. Clemens, 2021. "The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2134, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Christopher Ball & Nicolas Groshenny & Ozer Karagedikli & Murat Özbilgin & Finn Robinson, 2024. "How Wages Respond to the Job-Finding and Job-to-Job Transition Rates: Evidence from New Zealand Administrative Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 159-180, February.
    5. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    6. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    8. Daepp, Madeleine I.G. & Bunten, Devin Michelle & Hsu, Joanne W., 2023. "The Effect of Racial Composition on Neighborhood Housing Prices: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina-Induced Migration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Timothy J. Bartik, 2024. "Local Labor Markets Should Be Redefined: New Definitions Based on Estimated Demand-Shock Spillovers," Upjohn Working Papers 24-407, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
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    11. Molloy, Raven & Nathanson, Charles G. & Paciorek, Andrew, 2022. "Housing supply and affordability: Evidence from rents, housing consumption and household location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. David Albouy & Heepyung Cho & Mariya Shappo, 2021. "Immigration and the pursuit of amenities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 5-29, January.
    13. Tim Bartik, 2023. "Seize the Time: Needed Research on Local Economic Development in an Era of Increased Attention to Problems of Place," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(1), pages 7-13, February.
    14. Busso, Matías & Chauvin, Juan Pablo, 2023. "Long-term Effects of Weather-induced Migration on Urban Labor and Housing Markets," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12668, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    16. Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.
    17. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Adrian Mehic, 2022. "Regional aspects of immigration‐related changes in political preferences," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1386-1413, November.
    19. Davis, Morris A. & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Veracierto, Marcelo, 2021. "Migration and urban economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    21. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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