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The Eyes of the Needles: A Sequential Model of Union Organizing Drives, 1999–2004

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  • John-Paul Ferguson

Abstract

This paper models three stages of the union organizing drive, using a new dataset covering more than 22,000 drives that took place between 1999 and 2004. The correlated sequential model tracks drives through all of their potential stages: holding an election, winning an election, and reaching first contracts. Only one-seventh of organizing drives that filed an election petition with the NLRB managed to reach a first contract within a year of certification. The model, which controls for the endogeneity of unfair labor practice (ULP) charges, finds that a ULP charge was associated with a 30% smaller cumulative chance of reaching such a contract. ULP charges had less effect on the votes cast than on the decision to hold an election and the ability to reach a first contract. A sequential model such as this one could be extended to test between some competing theories about the determinants of union organizing.

Suggested Citation

  • John-Paul Ferguson, 2008. "The Eyes of the Needles: A Sequential Model of Union Organizing Drives, 1999–2004," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 62(1), pages 3-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:62:y:2008:i:1:p:3-21
    DOI: 10.1177/001979390806200101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Chris Riddell, 2004. "Union Certification Success under Voting versus Card-Check Procedures: Evidence from British Columbia, 1978–1998," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 57(4), pages 493-517, July.
    4. Flanagan, Robert J, 1989. "Compliance and Enforcement Decisions under the National Labor Relations Act," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 257-280, July.
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