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Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework

Author

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  • Yusong Xie

    (Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan)

  • Katsue Fukamachi

    (Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan
    Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan)

  • Wen Wang

    (Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan)

  • Shozo Shibata

    (Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan
    Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan)

Abstract

Facing future complex climate changes and global economic fluctuations, land use and land cover (LULC) simulation is recognized as an important initiative to support government decision-making. In this study, a comprehensive LULC simulation modeling framework was proposed based on the PLUS and InVEST models. The Kinki metropolis in Japan was chosen as a case to simulate future LULC changes under four SSP–RCP (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios, and to calculate carbon storage (CS) from 2040 to 2100. The results show that cultivated land will decrease while forests will increase, except under scenario SSP585. The artificial surface will increase except under SSP370. The CS changes are significantly correlated with forest area changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the significance of analyzing and discussing future LULCs under wide-area planning. Spatial pattern, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and Pearson correlation analysis were used to explore the characteristics of the LULC types. The results reveal that the prefectures within the Kinki metropolitan area can be classified into three groups based on the spatial pattern indices change of the artificial surface. Most cultivated land is concentrated in important patches and corridors (area larger than 40,000 m 2 ), accounting for over 90% of the total area, while the number is less than 25%. Forests will become more aggregated, and different MSPA classes will have varying impacts on CS changes. This study comprehensively analyzed and validated the feasibility of the simulation results from different LULC perspectives, comparing the similarities and differences in the development of prefectures. Additionally, this research provides a comprehensive framework for integrating simulated LULC types with policy discussions to better guide LULC planning and policy formulation in metropolitan Kinki.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusong Xie & Katsue Fukamachi & Wen Wang & Shozo Shibata, 2023. "Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:9:p:1722-:d:1232711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guandong Su & Hidenori Okahashi & Lin Chen, 2018. "Spatial Pattern of Farmland Abandonment in Japan: Identification and Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Kimisato Oda & Christoph D. D. Rupprecht & Kazuaki Tsuchiya & Steven R. McGreevy, 2018. "Urban Agriculture as a Sustainability Transition Strategy for Shrinking Cities? Land Use Change Trajectory as an Obstacle in Kyoto City, Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Stamatia Nasiakou & Michael Vrahnakis & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Georgios Mamanis & Vassiliki Kleftoyanni, 2022. "Land Use Changes for Investments in Silvoarable Agriculture Projected by the CLUE-S Spatio-Temporal Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Guangzhao Chen & Xia Li & Xiaoping Liu & Yimin Chen & Xun Liang & Jiye Leng & Xiaocong Xu & Weilin Liao & Yue’an Qiu & Qianlian Wu & Kangning Huang, 2020. "Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
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