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Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria

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  • Kosow, Hannah
  • Gaßner, Robert

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  • Kosow, Hannah & Gaßner, Robert, 2008. "Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 39, number 39, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diestu:39
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/199164/1/die-study-39.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fromhold-Eisebith, Martina & Marschall, Philip & Peters, Robert & Thomes, Paul, 2021. "Torn between digitized future and context dependent past – How implementing ‘Industry 4.0’ production technologies could transform the German textile industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Tzen-Ying Ling & Wei-Kai Hung & Chun-Tsu Lin & Michael Lu, 2020. "Dealing with Green Gentrification and Vertical Green-Related Urban Well-Being: A Contextual-Based Design Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Henning Breuer & Florian Lüdeke-Freund, 2017. "Values-Based Network And Business Model Innovation," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-35, April.
    6. Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke A. & Hengeveld, Geerten M. & de Jong, Rutger, 2017. "Analysing scenario approaches for forest management — One decade of experiences in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 222-234.
    7. Hoffart, Franziska, 2022. "What is a feasible and 1.5°C-aligned hydrogen infrastructure for Germany? A multi-criteria economic study based on socio-technical energy scenarios," Ruhr Economic Papers 979, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Schoemaker, Casper G. & van Loon, Jeanne & Achterberg, Peter W. & van den Berg, Matthijs & Harbers, Maartje M. & den Hertog, Frank R.J. & Hilderink, Henk & Kommer, Geertjan & Melse, Johan & van Oers, , 2019. "The Public Health Status and Foresight report 2014: Four normative perspectives on a healthier Netherlands in 2040," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 252-259.
    9. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2020. "Low-Carbon Energy Governance: Scenarios to Accelerate the Change in the Energy Matrix in Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-13, September.
    11. Zinaida Manžuch & Elena Macevičiūtė, 2020. "Getting ready to reduce the digital divide: Scenarios of Lithuanian public libraries," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 71(10), pages 1205-1217, October.
    12. Zipan Cai & Bo Wang & Cong Cong & Vladimir Cvetkovic, 2020. "Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1380-1396, October.
    13. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Michel, Sophie & Pallud, Jessie & Monti, Régine, 2022. "Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Kim, Sehoon & Connerton, Timothy Paul & Park, Cheongyeul, 2021. "Exploring the impact of technological disruptions in the automotive retail: A futures studies and systems thinking approach based on causal layered analysis and causal loop diagram," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Juho Roponen & Ahti Salo, 2024. "A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    16. Julia Terrapon-Pfaff & Sibel Raquel Ersoy & Thomas Fink & Sarra Amroune & El Mostafa Jamea & Hsaine Zgou & Peter Viebahn, 2020. "Localizing the Water-Energy Nexus: The Relationship between Solar Thermal Power Plants and Future Developments in Local Water Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    17. Vollmar, Horst Christian & Goluchowicz, Kerstin & Beckert, Bernd & Dönitz, Ewa & Bartholomeyczik, Sabine & Ostermann, Thomas & Boustani, Malaz & Buscher, Ines, 2014. "Health care for people with dementia in 2030 – Results of a multidisciplinary scenario process," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 254-262.
    18. Ravensbergen, W.M. & Drewes, Y.M. & Hilderink, H.B.M. & Verschuuren, M. & Gussekloo, J. & Vonk, R.A.A., 2019. "Combined impact of future trends on healthcare utilisation of older people: A Delphi study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(10), pages 947-954.
    19. Jürgen Kopfmüller & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Tobias Naegler & Jens Buchgeister & Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam & Volker Stelzer, 2021. "Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-34, March.
    20. Carlsson, Julia & Eriksson, Ljusk Ola & Öhman, Karin & Nordström, Eva-Maria, 2015. "Combining scientific and stakeholder knowledge in future scenario development — A forest landscape case study in northern Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 122-134.
    21. Yuri Calleo & Simone Di Zio & Francesco Pilla, 2023. "Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    22. Steffi Weyand & Kotaro Kawajiri & Claudiu Mortan & Liselotte Schebek, 2023. "Scheme for generating upscaling scenarios of emerging functional materials based energy technologies in prospective LCA (UpFunMatLCA)," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(3), pages 676-692, June.
    23. Gareth RT White & Anthony Samuel & David Pickernell & Dan Taylor & Rachel Mason-Jones, 2018. "Social entrepreneurs in challenging places: A Delphi study of experiences and perspectives," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 33(8), pages 800-821, December.

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