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The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 1: Model Logic and Theory

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  • J Landis
  • M Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we explore the theory and logic behind the development of the second generation of the California urban futures model, a site-specific urban growth and simulation model. The second-generation model remedies three of the major shortcomings of the first generation. It substitutes a statistical model of urban land-use change, calibrated against historical experience, for an uncalibrated ‘developer-driven’ model. It includes multiple urban land uses (for example, single-family residential, apartments, retail and office, and industrial) and allows them to bid against each other for preferred sites. It allows previously developed sites to be redeveloped into different uses. Finally, in addition to simulating the spatial impacts of regulatory policies, it can also simulate the effects of major infrastructure investments such as highways and transit lines.

Suggested Citation

  • J Landis & M Zhang, 1998. "The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 1: Model Logic and Theory," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 25(5), pages 657-666, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:25:y:1998:i:5:p:657-666
    DOI: 10.1068/b250657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Landis, John D. & Zhao, Ming, 1994. "Pilot Study of Solano and Sonoma Counties Land Use and Development Policy Alternatives," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt98c0043t, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Landis, John D., 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9pb6g3g6, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuo, Chengchao & Birkin, Mark, 2019. "Modelling the economic and demographic impacts of major transport infrastructure provision: A case study of UK regions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 207-222.

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