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A Demographic Model for Small Area Population Projections: An Application to the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada

Author

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  • Pavlos S Kanaroglou
  • Hanna F Maoh
  • Bruce Newbold
  • Darren M Scott
  • Antonio Paez

Abstract

This paper reports on the development of a demographic model capable of projecting the spatial distribution of population by age and sex for small areas such as census tracts. The proposed modeling framework makes use of two components: the Rogers multiregional population projection model and the aggregate spatial multinomial logit (ASMNL) model. The Rogers model utilizes cohort vital statistics on fertility, mortality, and migration to project the progression of population by age and sex at the regional level, while the ASMNL model extends the capabilities of the Rogers model enabling it to provide population estimates at a finer spatial scale. The model is applied to the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area in Canada. Our simulation tests highlight the robustness of the proposed modeling approach in utilizing small area characteristics and regional vital statistics to perform small area population projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlos S Kanaroglou & Hanna F Maoh & Bruce Newbold & Darren M Scott & Antonio Paez, 2009. "A Demographic Model for Small Area Population Projections: An Application to the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(4), pages 964-979, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:41:y:2009:i:4:p:964-979
    DOI: 10.1068/a40172
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanna Maoh & Pavlos Kanaroglou, 2007. "Geographic clustering of firms and urban form: a multivariate analysis," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 29-52, April.
    2. Sandra Rosenbloom, 2001. "Sustainability and automobility among the elderly: An international assessment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 375-408, November.
    3. P Rees, 1994. "Estimating and projecting the populations of urban communities," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(11), pages 1671-1697, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.

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