IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/engenv/v24y2013i7-8p1271-1293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Impacts of Carbon Tax and Feed-in Tariff Policies on China's Generating Portfolio and Carbon Emissions: A Multi-Agent-Based Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lin-Ju Chen
  • Lei Zhu
  • Ying Fan
  • Sheng-Hua Cai

Abstract

Using agent-based modelling, this paper established an adaptive simulation model of China's wholesale electricity market with endogenous investment decisions and technical progress. The model took into account the heterogeneities of power generators, including emission reduction attitudes and risk appetites. Using this model, we simulated how carbon tax and feed-in tariff (FIT) policies will affect each single generator in terms of market behaviours (price bidding and investment) to explore the evolution of power generating portfolio and emissions differently in the time horizon 2010–2050. The validity of the model was tested according to China's electricity market data. We found that FIT for wind power and solar power will crowd out the investment in gas power and nuclear power, rather than replacing coal power. Compared to FIT, carbon tax is a more effective tool for emission abatement and incentivize multiple low carbon generating technologies. And optimal rate of carbon tax should be no more than 250 CNY/t CO 2 .

Suggested Citation

  • Lin-Ju Chen & Lei Zhu & Ying Fan & Sheng-Hua Cai, 2013. "Long-Term Impacts of Carbon Tax and Feed-in Tariff Policies on China's Generating Portfolio and Carbon Emissions: A Multi-Agent-Based Analysis," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(7-8), pages 1271-1293, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:7-8:p:1271-1293
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.7-8.1271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/0958-305X.24.7-8.1271
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1260/0958-305X.24.7-8.1271?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pahle, Michael & Fan, Lin & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2011. "How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1975-1987.
    2. Day, Christopher J & Bunn, Derek W, 2001. "Divestiture of Generation Assets in the Electricity Pool of England and Wales: A Computational Approach to Analyzing Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 123-141, March.
    3. Micola, Augusto Ruperez & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Crossholdings, concentration and information in capacity-constrained sealed bid-offer auctions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(3-4), pages 748-766, June.
    4. Levin, Todd & Thomas, Valerie M. & Lee, Audrey J., 2011. "State-scale evaluation of renewable electricity policy: The role of renewable electricity credits and carbon taxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 950-960, February.
    5. James Nicolaisen & Valentin Petrov & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2000. "Market Power and Efficiency in a Computational Electricity Market with Discriminatory Double-Auction Pricing," Computational Economics 0004005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez Micola, 2009. "Composition of Electricity Generation Portfolios, Pivotal Dynamics, and Market Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1813-1831, November.
    7. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Banal-Estañol, Albert & Rupérez Micola, Augusto, 2011. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 147-159, October.
    9. Hoffmann, Volker H., 2007. "EU ETS and Investment Decisions:: The Case of the German Electricity Industry," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 464-474, December.
    10. Levin, Todd & Thomas, Valerie M. & Lee, Audrey J., 2011. "Erratum to "State-scale evaluation of renewable electricity policy: The role of renewable electricity credits and carbon taxes" [Energy Policy 39 (2) (2010) 950-960]," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2216-2216, April.
    11. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    12. Peter Cramton, 2003. "Competitive Bidding Behavior in Uniform-Price Auction Markets," Papers of Peter Cramton 03ferc1, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2003.
    13. Bunn, Derek W. & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2007. "Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialization in electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1265-1278, September.
    14. Bunn, Derek W. & Martoccia, Maria, 2005. "Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 305-315, March.
    15. Sijm, Jos & Chen, Yihsu & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition – A theoretical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1143-1152.
    16. McDonald, Alan & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2001. "Learning rates for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 255-261, March.
    17. Marks, Robert, 2006. "Market Design Using Agent-Based Models," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 1339-1380, Elsevier.
    18. Weidlich, Anke & Veit, Daniel, 2008. "A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1728-1759, July.
    19. Bower, John & Bunn, Derek, 2001. "Experimental analysis of the efficiency of uniform-price versus discriminatory auctions in the England and Wales electricity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 561-592, March.
    20. Bonacina, Monica & Gulli`, Francesco, 2007. "Electricity pricing under "carbon emissions trading": A dominant firm with competitive fringe model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4200-4220, August.
    21. Sarıca, Kemal & Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan & Or, Ilhan, 2012. "Modeling and analysis of a decentralized electricity market: An integrated simulation/optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 830-852.
    22. Azadeh, A. & Skandari, M.R. & Maleki-Shoja, B., 2010. "An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets: Agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6307-6319, October.
    23. John Bower & Derek W. Bunn, 2000. "Model-Based Comparisons of Pool and Bilateral Markets for Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-29.
    24. Kim, Wook & Chattopadhyay, Deb & Park, Jong-bae, 2010. "Impact of carbon cost on wholesale electricity price: A note on price pass-through issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3441-3448.
    25. Derek W. Bunn & Fernando S. Oliveira, 2008. "Modeling the Impact of Market Interventions on the Strategic Evolution of Electricity Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1116-1130, October.
    26. Bunn, Derek W. & Day, Christopher J., 2009. "Computational modelling of price formation in the electricity pool of England and Wales," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 363-376, February.
    27. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    28. Nelson, Tim & Kelley, Simon & Orton, Fiona, 2012. "A literature review of economic studies on carbon pricing and Australian wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 217-224.
    29. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
    30. Bower, John & Bunn, Derek W. & Wattendrup, Claus, 2001. "A model-based analysis of strategic consolidation in the German electricity industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 987-1005, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Lei & Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Li, Yuan & Wang, Xu & Guo, Jianxin, 2017. "Can an emission trading scheme promote the withdrawal of outdated capacity in energy-intensive sectors? A case study on China's iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 332-347.
    2. Foramitti, Joël & Savin, Ivan & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2021. "Emission tax vs. permit trading under bounded rationality and dynamic markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    3. Lin-Ju Chen & Zhen-Hai Fang & Fei Xie & Hai-Kuo Dong & Yu-Heng Zhou, 2020. "Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1305-1323, October.
    4. Chen, Huadong & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Jianhui, 2018. "Simulating the impact of investment preference on low-carbon transition in power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 440-455.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banal-Estañol, Albert & Rupérez Micola, Augusto, 2011. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 147-159, October.
    2. Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2010. "Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case," Economics Working Papers 1214, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo & Möst, Dominik, 2007. "Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a literature review," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S5/2007, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sarıca, Kemal & Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan & Or, Ilhan, 2012. "Modeling and analysis of a decentralized electricity market: An integrated simulation/optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 830-852.
    8. Weidlich, Anke & Veit, Daniel, 2008. "A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1728-1759, July.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rahimiyan, Morteza & Rajabi Mashhadi, Habib, 2010. "Evaluating the efficiency of divestiture policy in promoting competitiveness using an analytical method and agent-based computational economics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1588-1595, March.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rashidova E.A., 2017. "Agent-based modeling of wholesale electricity market," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 70-85.
    13. Haghnevis, Moeed & Askin, Ronald G. & Armbruster, Dieter, 2016. "An agent-based modeling optimization approach for understanding behavior of engineered complex adaptive systems," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 67-87.
    14. Gaivoronskaia, E. & Tsyplakov, A., 2018. "Using a Modified Erev-Roth Algorithm in an Agent-Based Electricity Market Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 55-83.
    15. Kimbrough, Steven O. & Murphy, Frederic H., 2013. "Strategic bidding of offer curves: An agent-based approach to exploring supply curve equilibria," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 165-178.
    16. Block, C. & Collins, J. & Ketter, W. & Weinhardt, C., 2009. "A Multi-Agent Energy Trading Competition," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-054-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    17. Fuentes, Rolando & Sengupta, Abhijit, 2020. "Using insurance to manage reliability in the distributed electricity sector: Insights from an agent-based model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Young, David & Poletti, Stephen & Browne, Oliver, 2014. "Can agent-based models forecast spot prices in electricity markets? Evidence from the New Zealand electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 419-434.
    19. Azadeh, A. & Skandari, M.R. & Maleki-Shoja, B., 2010. "An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets: Agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6307-6319, October.
    20. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Post-Print hal-03461120, HAL.
    21. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
    22. Giovanni Dosi & Richard Nelson, 2013. "The Evolution of Technologies: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(1), pages 3-46, June.
    23. Alan Mehlenbacher, 2007. "Multiagent System Platform for Auction Simulations," Department Discussion Papers 0706, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    24. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:7-8:p:1271-1293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.