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Climate Change and the Vulnerability of Germany’s Power Sector to Heat and Drought

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  • Alexander Golub
  • Kristina Govorukha
  • Philip Mayer
  • Dirk Rübbelke

Abstract

The effects of extreme weather events and the resilience of the energy sector have become the subject of regulatory initiatives and ongoing research. We demonstrate the vulnerability of the German power sector to climate change and provide a qualitative and quantitative analysis of emerging risks from two types of extreme weather events: droughts and high temperatures. Our analysis is based on datasets covering temperature and drought data for the last 40 years. We present evidence of a higher frequency of power plant outages as a consequence of droughts and high temperatures. To characterize the vulnerability of the power sector we develop a capacity-adjusted drought index. The results are used to assess the monetary loss of power plant outages due to heatwaves and droughts and losses to consumers due to higher wholesale electricity prices and price volatility. An increasing frequency of such extreme weather events will aggravate the observed problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Golub & Kristina Govorukha & Philip Mayer & Dirk Rübbelke, 2022. "Climate Change and the Vulnerability of Germany’s Power Sector to Heat and Drought," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(3), pages 157-184, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:3:p:157-184
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.agol
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Nicholas Rivers & Blake Shaffer, 2020. "Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 55-88, September.
    3. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & David Wiberg & Sylvain Leduc & Keywan Riahi, 2016. "Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 375-380, April.
    4. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & John R. Yearsley & Fulco Ludwig & Stefan Vögele & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Pavel Kabat, 2012. "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 676-681, September.
    5. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110558.
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