IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i10p2686-d174381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Consequences of Cooling Water Insufficiency in the Thermal Power Sector under Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Zhou

    (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Naota Hanasaki

    (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
    Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

Abstract

Currently, thermal power is the largest source of power in the world. Although the impacts of climate change on cooling water sufficiency in thermal power plants have been extensively assessed globally and regionally, their economic consequences have seldom been evaluated. In this study, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Computable General Equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) was used to evaluate the economic consequences of projected future cooling water insufficiency on a global basis, which was simulated using the H08 global hydrological model. This approach enabled us to investigate how the physical impacts of climate change on thermal power generation influence economic activities in regions and industrial sectors. To account for the uncertainty of climate change projections, five global climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used. The ensemble-mean results showed that the global gross domestic product (GDP) loss in 2070–2095 due to cooling water insufficiency in the thermal power sector was −0.21% (−0.12%) in RCP8.5 (RCP2.6). Among the five regions, the largest GDP loss of −0.57% (−0.27%) was observed in the Middle East and Africa. Medium-scale losses of −0.18% (−0.12%) and −0.14% (−0.12%) were found in OECD90 (the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development as of 1990) and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, respectively. The smallest losses of −0.05% (−0.06%) and −0.09% (−0.08%) were found in Latin America and Asia, respectively. The economic impact of cooling water insufficiency was non-negligible and should be considered as one of the threats induced by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Zhou & Naota Hanasaki & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2018. "Economic Consequences of Cooling Water Insufficiency in the Thermal Power Sector under Climate Change Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2686-:d:174381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2686/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2686/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & John R. Yearsley & Fulco Ludwig & Stefan Vögele & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Pavel Kabat, 2012. "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 676-681, September.
    2. Qian Zhou & Naota Hanasaki & Shinichiro Fujimori & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 77-90, March.
    3. Tomoko Hasegawa & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Tokuta Yokohata & Toshihiko Masui, 2016. "Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 189-202, May.
    4. Francesco Dottori & Wojciech Szewczyk & Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Fang Zhao & Lorenzo Alfieri & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Alessandra Bianchi & Ignazio Mongelli & Katja Frieler & Richard A. Betts & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 781-786, September.
    5. repec:pal:palcom:v:2016:y:2016:i:palcomms201613:p:16013- is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Boogert, Alexander & Dupont, Dominique, 2005. "The nature of supply side effects on electricity prices: The impact of water temperature," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 121-125, July.
    7. Tomoko Hasegawa & Chan Park & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasuaki Hijioka & Toshihiko Masui, 2016. "Quantifying the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling systems under varying climatic scenarios," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    9. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & David Wiberg & Sylvain Leduc & Keywan Riahi, 2016. "Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 375-380, April.
    10. Matthew D. Bartos & Mikhail V. Chester, 2015. "Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 748-752, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo de la Rocha Camba & Fontina Petrakopoulou, 2020. "Earth-Cooling Air Tunnels for Thermal Power Plants: Initial Design by CFD Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Li, Haoran & Cui, Xueqin & Hui, Jingxuan & He, Gang & Weng, Yuwei & Nie, Yaoyu & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2021. "Catchment-level water stress risk of coal power transition in China under 2℃/1.5℃ targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. O'Connell, & Voisin, Nathalie & Macknick, & Fu,, 2019. "Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 745-754.
    2. Craig, Christopher A. & Feng, Song, 2016. "An examination of electricity generation by utility organizations in the Southeast United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 601-608.
    3. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Qian Zhou & Naota Hanasaki & Shinichiro Fujimori & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 77-90, March.
    5. Gjorgiev, Blaže & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2018. "Electrical power generation under policy constrained water-energy nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 568-579.
    6. Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    7. Pengbang Wei & Yufang Peng & Weidong Chen, 2022. "Climate change adaptation mechanisms and strategies of coal-fired power plants," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Jin, Yi & Scherer, Laura & Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2022. "Climate change and CCS increase the water vulnerability of China's thermoelectric power fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    9. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    10. Ayoub, Ali & Gjorgiev, Blaže & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2018. "Cooling towers performance in a changing climate: Techno-economic modeling and design optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1133-1143.
    11. Zhou, Yuanchun & Ma, Mengdie & Gao, Peiqi & Xu, Qiming & Bi, Jun & Naren, Tuya, 2019. "Managing water resources from the energy - water nexus perspective under a changing climate: A case study of Jiangsu province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 380-390.
    12. SarahM. Jordaan & Afreen Siddiqi & William Kakenmaster & AliceC. Hill, 2019. "The Climate Vulnerabilities of Global Nuclear Power," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 19(4), pages 3-13, November.
    13. Osamu Nishiura & Makoto Tamura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Junya Takakura & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    15. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping & Lu, Chen, 2023. "Responses of hydroelectricity generation to streamflow drought under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    16. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    17. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    18. I. Mouratiadou & M. Bevione & D. L. Bijl & L. Drouet & M. Hejazi & S. Mima & M. Pehl & G. Luderer, 2018. "Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 91-106, March.
    19. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    20. Lucas da Costa Santos & Lucas Santos do Patrocínio Figueiró & Fabiani Denise Bender & Jefferson Vieira José & Adma Viana Santos & Julia Eduarda Araujo & Evandro Luiz Mendonça Machado & Ricardo Siqueir, 2024. "Unveiling Climate Trends and Future Projections in Southeastern Brazil: A Case Study of Brazil’s Historic Agricultural Heritage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-14, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2686-:d:174381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.