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Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty

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  • Michail Chronopoulos
  • Verena Hagspiel
  • Stein-Erik Fleten

Abstract

We analyse how market price and policy uncertainty, in the form of random provision or retraction of a subsidy, interact to affect the optimal time of investment and the size of a renewable energy (RE) project that can be completed in either a single (lumpy investment) or multiple stages (stepwise investment). The subsidy takes the form of a fixed premium on top of the electricity price, and, therefore, investment is subject to electricity price uncertainty. We show that the risk of a permanent retraction (provision) of a subsidy increases (decreases) the incentive to invest, yet lowers (raises) the amount of installed capacity, and that this result is more pronounced as the size of the subsidy increases. Additionally, we show that increasing the number of policy interventions lowers the expected value of a subsidy and the size of the project. Furthermore, we illustrate that, although an increase in the size of a subsidy lowers the relative value of the stepwise investment strategy, the expected value of a lumpy investment strategy is still lower than that of stepwise investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(4), pages 87-108, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:37:y:2016:i:4:p:87-108
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.4.mchr
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    4. Kinga B. Tchorzewska, 2024. "A Lost Opportunity? Environmental Investment Tax Incentive and Energy Efficient Technologies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(12), pages 3301-3333, December.
    5. Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, V. & Kort, Peter M., 2017. "Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 4c7a7c87-a34c-4934-a910-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Klein, Martin & Deissenroth, Marc, 2017. "When do households invest in solar photovoltaics? An application of prospect theory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 270-278.
    7. Bigerna, Simona & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Wen, Xingang, 2023. "How damaging are environmental policy targets in terms of welfare?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 354-372.
    8. Sendstad, Lars H. & Hagspiel, Verena & Mikkelsen, Wilhelm Jebsen & Ravndal, Ruben & Tveitstøl, Martin, 2022. "The impact of subsidy retraction on European renewable energy investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Zhouchun Huang & Qipeng P. Zheng & Andrew L. Liu, 2022. "A Nested Cross Decomposition Algorithm for Power System Capacity Expansion with Multiscale Uncertainties," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1919-1939, July.
    10. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Umar, Muhammad & Chang, Tsangyao, 2022. "Renewable energy in prism of technological innovation and economic uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 467-478.
    11. Peter Kort & Maria Lavrutich & Cláudia Nunes & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Preventing Environmental Disasters in Investment under Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 199-220, September.
    12. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.
    15. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Xu, Xiaofeng & Cui, Xiaodan & Chen, Xiangyu & Zhou, Yichen, 2022. "Impact of government subsidies on the innovation performance of the photovoltaic industry: Based on the moderating effect of carbon trading prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Sendstad, Lars H., 2023. "Don’t stop me now: Incremental capacity growth under subsidy termination risk," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    18. Loïc Weerdt & Tine Compernolle & Verena Hagspiel & Peter Kort & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 413-443, October.
    19. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2016. "Sequential Investment in Emerging Technologies under Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2016/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    20. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    21. Sarah Hafner & Olivia James & Aled Jones, 2019. "A Scoping Review of Barriers to Investment in Climate Change Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, June.
    22. Zhou, Chaobo & Qi, Shaozhou, 2022. "Has the pilot carbon trading policy improved China's green total factor energy efficiency?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    23. Haikel Khalfallah & Bibata Sagnon, 2023. "Coordination séquentielle des investissements dans la production d'électricité et dans le réseau électrique : le rôle des incitations renouvelables," Working Papers 2023-04, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment analysis; Capacity sizing; Renewable energy; Policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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