IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v89y2020ics014098832030147x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Detemple, Jerome
  • Kitapbayev, Yerkin

Abstract

We examine investments in power generation projects under policy uncertainty, when the investor has the choice between two alternative technologies, a gas-fired plant and a wind plant. Increased likelihood of subsidy withdrawal reduces the payoff from and postpones investments in the wind technology. Simultaneously, it accelerates investments in gas, thereby eliminating or further postponing investments in wind capacity. We show that this substitution phenomenon can be of first order importance: it can have a significant impact on the timing of investment, the wind premium, and the probability of investing in the wind technology. Our results provide new insights about the scope and impact of green energy regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s014098832030147x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098832030147X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    3. Mark Broadie & Jérôme Detemple, 1997. "The Valuation of American Options on Multiple Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 241-286, July.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    6. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    7. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(4), pages 87-108, October.
    8. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2010. "Technology choice under several uncertainty sources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 586-600, November.
    9. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2018. "Optimal Investment under Cost Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Dalby, Peder A.O. & Gillerhaugen, Gisle R. & Hagspiel, Verena & Leth-Olsen, Tord & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2018. "Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1262-1281.
    11. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Linnerud, Kristin, 2015. "Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 435-448.
    12. Barbosa, Luciana & Ferrão, Paulo & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2018. "Feed-in tariffs with minimum price guarantees and regulatory uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 517-541.
    13. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev & Philip Strahan, 2020. "The Value of Green Energy: Optimal Investment in Mutually Exclusive Projects and Operating Leverage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(7), pages 3307-3347.
    14. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "Optimal execution with multiplicative price impact and incomplete information on the return," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 713-768, July.
    2. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    4. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Papers 2202.10414, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    5. Jan Niklas Buescher & Daria Gottwald & Florian Momm & Alexander Zureck, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis on the Efficiency of European Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges," Papers 2211.05835, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    7. Azze, A. & D’Auria, B. & García-Portugués, E., 2024. "Optimal stopping of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck bridge," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Wang, Bo & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe, 2022. "High-quality energy development in China: Comprehensive assessment and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Cinzia Bonaldo & Fulvio Fontini & Michele Moretto, 2022. "The Energy Transition and the Value of Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms," Working Papers 2022.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. D'Auria, Bernardo & Guada Azze, Abel, 2021. "Optimal stopping of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 33508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. Ji, Xiangfeng & Chen, Xueqi & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Sustainable energy goals and investment premium: Evidence from renewable and conventional equity mutual funds in the Euro zone," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Itani, Rania, 2021. "Is there a green fund premium? Evidence from twenty seven emerging markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal exercise of American options under time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Papers 2211.04095, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    14. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 663, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    15. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Papers 2103.08258, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    16. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Hagspiel, Verena & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Portela, Manuel, 2021. "Green investment under time-dependent subsidy retraction risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Loïc Weerdt & Tine Compernolle & Verena Hagspiel & Peter Kort & Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 413-443, October.
    4. Bigerna, Simona & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Wen, Xingang, 2023. "How damaging are environmental policy targets in terms of welfare?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 354-372.
    5. Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, V. & Kort, Peter M., 2017. "Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 4c7a7c87-a34c-4934-a910-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Bigerna, Simona & Wen, Xingang & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 635-644.
    7. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    9. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2021. "Optimal Power Investment and Pandemics: A Micro-Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    10. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Investment decisions with finite-lived collars," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 185-204.
    11. Barbosa, Luciana & Nunes, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2020. "Feed-in tariff contract schemes and regulatory uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 331-347.
    12. Jerome Detemple & Yerkin Kitapbayev, 2018. "Optimal Investment under Cost Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Sendstad, Lars H., 2023. "Don’t stop me now: Incremental capacity growth under subsidy termination risk," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    15. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.
    16. Makoto Goto & Katsumasa Nishide & Ryuta Takashima, 2013. "Irreversible Investment under Competition with a Markov Switching Regime," KIER Working Papers 861, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Barbosa, Luciana & Rodrigues, Artur & Sardinha, Alberto, 2022. "Optimal price subsidies under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 471-479.
    18. Wilson, Nathan E., 2012. "Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 102-115.
    19. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2016. "Sequential Investment in Emerging Technologies under Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2016/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    20. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green energy; Wind plant; Gas-fired plant; Real options; Subsidy; Regulation uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s014098832030147x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.