IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v27y2006i1p37-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey Rothwell

Abstract

Although nuclear power plants are being built in Asia, they have not been ordered in the U.S. since the 1979 accident at Three Mile Island. For many reasons, new attention is being given to light water reactors. Currently- operating nuclear power plants in the U.S. were built under rate-of-return regulation. Now, new nuclear power plants must compete in power markets. This paper models the net present value of building an Advanced Boiling Water Reactor in Texas using a real options approach to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. It finds that a cost of about $1,200 per kilowatt-electric (including financing costs) for advanced light water nuclear power plants could trigger new orders. On the other hand, owner-operators might be willing to pay higher prices for nuclear megawatts if methods for mitigating price, cost, and capacity risk through contracts or real assets could be found.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1), pages 37-54, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:27:y:2006:i:1:p:37-54
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No1-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No1-3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No1-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Francoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2005. "Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: Valuing modularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 667-685, July.
    3. Geoffrey S. Rothwell, 2000. "The Risk of Early Retirement of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants under Electricity Deregulation and CO2 Emission Reductions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
    2. Michail Chronopoulos, Verena Hagspiel, and Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    3. Roques, F.A. & Savva , N.S., 2006. "Price Cap Regulation and Investment Incentives under Demand Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0636, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Jain, Shashi & Roelofs, Ferry & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2013. "Valuing modular nuclear power plants in finite time decision horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 625-636.
    5. Siddiqui, Afzal & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "How to proceed with competing alternative energy technologies: A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 817-830, July.
    6. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    7. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2020. "Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Michail Chronopoulos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2015. "When is it better to wait for a new version? Optimal replacement of an emerging technology under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 177-201, December.
    9. Karine Fiore, 2004. "Irréversibilité Mixte et Modularité : une application à l’investissement électronucléaire," CAE Working Papers 17, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
    10. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    11. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    12. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2024. "A sequential real options analysis for renewable power-to-hydrogen plants for Germany and California," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    13. Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
    14. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2010. "Technology choice under several uncertainty sources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 586-600, November.
    15. Takashima, Ryuta & Goto, Makoto & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2008. "Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1809-1830, July.
    16. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    17. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2016. "Sequential Investment in Emerging Technologies under Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2016/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    18. Michail Chronopoulos, Derek Bunn, and Afzal Siddiqui, 2014. "Optionality and Policymaking in Re-Transforming the British Power Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    19. Hampe, Jona & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economics of High-Temperature Nuclear Reactors for Industrial Cogeneration," FCN Working Papers 10/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    20. Chronopoulos, Michail & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "When is it Better to Wait for a New Version? Optimal Replacement of an Emerging Technology under Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2014/26, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nuclear power economics; investment under uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; US; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:27:y:2006:i:1:p:37-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.