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Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty

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  • Siddiqui, Afzal
  • Takashima, Ryuta

Abstract

Deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share. Firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages. Using a two-stage real options model, we explore the value of such flexibility. We first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty. Next, we find that a typical duopoly firm’s value relative to a monopolist’s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high. Intriguingly, this result is reversed for a low loss in market share. We finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:222:y:2012:i:3:p:583-595
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.034
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    2. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    3. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Costa, Manuel L.G., 2018. "Capacity expansion under uncertainty in an oligopoly using indirect reinforcement-learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1039-1050.
    4. Aïd, René & Li, Liangchen & Ludkovski, Michael, 2017. "Capacity expansion games with application to competition in power generation investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-31.
    5. Morreale, Azzurra & Mittone, Luigi & Lo Nigro, Giovanna, 2019. "Risky choices in strategic environments: An experimental investigation of a real options game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(1), pages 143-158.
    6. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    7. Zhang, Zixuan & Chronopoulos, Michail & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Dimitrova, Dimitrina S., 2024. "Bi-level optimisation of subsidy and capacity investment under competition and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 327-340.
    8. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "Duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 643-656.
    10. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2014. "Optimal exercise of jointly held real options: A Nash bargaining approach with value diversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 565-578.
    11. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
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    15. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2021. "Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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