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Gauging the Magnitude of Civilization Conflict

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  • Glynn Ellis

    (Georgia Southern University, USA)

Abstract

Multiple studies of Huntington’s suggestion of a clash of civilizations have found no support for it. This study does not reanalyze his thesis, but rather focuses on specific features of the different-civilization conflict he theorizes about. Using empirical analysis I find that different-civilization conflict is more prevalent than same-civilization conflict, and is therefore appropriate for continued scholarly examination. Even so, I conclude that over time it is not only shrinking as a percentage of the overall world conflict as previously reported but is doing so at a rate more pronounced than heretofore realized. My results support Roeder’s findings that the most contentious civilizations are the West, Orthodox, and Islam, with Western states as a group being more contentious than the other two. As for a most contentious civilization dyad, I find the probability of conflict to be about the same for Western-Islamic and Western-Orthodox states. Finally, I conclude that the contentiousness of Western states derives in large part from their tendency to band together or cooperate during violent conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Glynn Ellis, 2010. "Gauging the Magnitude of Civilization Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(3), pages 219-238, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:27:y:2010:i:3:p:219-238
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894210366510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2017. "What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 46-56.

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