IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v117y2017icp46-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining

Author

Listed:
  • Buscema, Massimo
  • Ferilli, Guido
  • Sacco, Pier Luigi

Abstract

In this paper, we present an innovative data processing architecture, the Activation & Competition System (ACS), and show how this methodology allows us to reconstruct in detail some aspects of the fine grained structure of global relationships in the world order perspective, on the basis of a minimal dataset only consisting of the values of five publicly available indicators for 2007 for the 118 countries for which they are jointly available. ACS seems in particular to qualify as a valuable tool for the analysis of inter-country patterns of conflict and alliances, which may prove of special interest in the current situation of global strategic uncertainty in international relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2017. "What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 46-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:117:y:2017:i:c:p:46-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517300379
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Nils W Metternich & Andrea Ruggeri, 2014. "Data and progress in peace and conflict research," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(2), pages 301-314, March.
    2. Anessa L. Kimball, 2010. "Political survival, policy distribution, and alliance formation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 407-419, July.
    3. T. Camber Warren, 2010. "The geometry of security: Modeling interstate alliances as evolving networks," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 697-709, November.
    4. Saritas, Ozcan & Nugroho, Yanuar, 2012. "Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 509-529.
    5. William J. Dixon, 1993. "Democracy and the Management of International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 42-68, March.
    6. Erika Forsberg, 2008. "Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 283-300, March.
    7. Michael Mousseau, 1998. "Democracy and Compromise in Militarized Interstate Conflicts, 1816-1992," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 210-230, April.
    8. Buscema, Massimo & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2016. "MST Fitness Index and implicit data narratives: A comparative test on alternative unsupervised algorithms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 726-746.
    9. HÃ¥vard Hegre, 2008. "Polarization and Interstate Conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 261-282, March.
    10. Cagnin, Cristiano & Havas, Attila & Saritas, Ozcan, 2013. "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 379-385.
    11. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2001. "Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 15-31, March.
    12. Andrew Boutton & David B. Carter, 2014. "Fair-Weather Allies? Terrorism and the Allocation of US Foreign Aid," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(7), pages 1144-1173, October.
    13. Sharon Weinberger, 2011. "Spies to use Twitter as crystal ball," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7369), pages 301-301, October.
    14. Timothy M. Peterson & Leah Graham, 2011. "Shared Human Rights Norms and Military Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(2), pages 248-273, April.
    15. Massimo Buscema & Enzo Grossi & Luisa Montanini & Maria E Street, 2015. "Data Mining of Determinants of Intrauterine Growth Retardation Revisited Using Novel Algorithms Generating Semantic Maps and Prototypical Discriminating Variable Profiles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, July.
    16. Rosato, Sebastian, 2003. "The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(4), pages 585-602, November.
    17. Andrej Tusicisny, 2004. "Civilizational Conflicts: More Frequent, Longer, and Bloodier?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(4), pages 485-498, July.
    18. Peter Wallensteen, 1984. "Universalism vs. Particularism: On the Limits of Major Power Order," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 21(3), pages 243-257, September.
    19. Dieter Senghaas, 1998. "A Clash of Civilizations - An Idée Fixe?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 35(1), pages 127-132, January.
    20. Giacomo Chiozza, 2002. "Is There a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from Patterns of International Conflict Involvement, 1946-97," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(6), pages 711-734, November.
    21. Andrew Boutton, 2014. "US foreign aid, interstate rivalry, and incentives for counterterrorism cooperation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(6), pages 741-754, November.
    22. Daina Chiba & Carla Martinez Machain & William Reed, 2014. "Major Powers and Militarized Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(6), pages 976-1002, September.
    23. Douglas M. Gibler & Meredith Reid Sarkees, 2004. "Measuring Alliances: the Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, 1816–2000," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(2), pages 211-222, March.
    24. Anessa L. Kimball, 2006. "Alliance Formation and Conflict Initiation: The Missing Link," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 43(4), pages 371-389, July.
    25. Stuart A. Bremer & Patrick M. Regan & David H. Clark, 2003. "Building a Science of World Politics," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 3-12, February.
    26. Bruce M. Russett & John R. Oneal & Michaelene Cox, 2000. "Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Déjà Vu? Some Evidence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(5), pages 583-608, September.
    27. Jonathan Fox, 2001. "Two Civilizations and Ethnic Conflict: Islam and the West," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 38(4), pages 459-472, July.
    28. Michael Mousseau, 2011. "Urban poverty and support for Islamist terror: Survey results of Muslims in fourteen countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(1), pages 35-47, January.
    29. Michael D. Wallace, 1973. "Alliance Polarization, Cross-Cutting, and International War, 1815-1964," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(4), pages 575-604, December.
    30. Glynn Ellis, 2010. "Gauging the Magnitude of Civilization Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(3), pages 219-238, July.
    31. Jan Faber, 1990. "On Bounded Rationality and the Framing of Decisions in International Relations: Towards a Dynamic Network Model of World Politics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 27(3), pages 307-319, August.
    32. Patrick James & Eric Solberg & Murray Wolfson, 1999. "An identified systemic model of the democracy-peace nexus," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erspamer, Christopher & Della Torre, Francesca & Massini, Giulia & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Buscema, Paolo Massimo, 2022. "Global world (dis-)order? Analyzing the dynamic evolution of the micro-structure of multipolarism by means of an unsupervised neural network approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Lee, Changyong & Kwon, Ohjin & Kim, Myeongjung & Kwon, Daeil, 2018. "Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 291-303.
    3. Pier Luigi Sacco & Alex Arenas & Manlio De Domenico, 2022. "The resilience of the multirelational structure of geopolitical treaties is critically linked to past colonial world order and offshore fiscal havens," Papers 2203.00618, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2017. "The Globalization and Peace Nexus: Findings Using Two Composite Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 871-885, April.
    2. Seung-Whan Choi, 2010. "Legislative Constraints: A Path to Peace?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(3), pages 438-470, June.
    3. Paola Conconi & Nicolas Sahuguet & Maurizio Zanardi, 2014. "Democratic Peace And Electoral Accountability," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 997-1028, August.
    4. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i:s1:p:55-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Johann Park, 2013. "Forward to the future? The democratic peace after the Cold War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(2), pages 178-194, April.
    6. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    7. Christiane Fröhlich & Pinar Bilgin, 2017. "Resisting Post-truth Politics, a Primer: Or, How Not to Think about Human Mobility and the Global Environment," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8, pages 55-59, February.
    8. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Michel, Sophie & Pallud, Jessie & Monti, Régine, 2022. "Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Sebastian Rosato, 2011. "On the Democratic Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Lis, Piotr, 2018. "The impact of armed conflict and terrorism on foreign aid: A sector-level analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 283-294.
    11. Dina A. Zinnes, 2004. "Constructing Political Logic," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(3), pages 430-454, June.
    12. Gokmen, Gunes, 2017. "Clash of civilizations and the impact of cultural differences on trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 449-458.
    13. Mark Harrison & Nikolaus Wolf, 2014. "The Frequency of Wars," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE ECONOMICS OF COERCION AND CONFLICT, chapter 5, pages 121-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. William J. Dixon & Paul D. Senese, 2002. "Democracy, Disputes, and Negotiated Settlements," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(4), pages 547-571, August.
    15. Jacob Ausderan, 2018. "Reassessing the democratic advantage in interstate wars using k-adic datasets," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(5), pages 451-473, September.
    16. Kelly M. Kadera & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2005. "Heeding Ray's Advice: An Exegesis on Control Variables in Systemic Democratic Peace Research," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 311-326, September.
    17. L. Kapranova D. & Л. Капранова Д., 2018. "Цифровая экономика в России: состояние и перспективы развития // The Digital Economy in Russia: Its State and Prospects of Development," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 11(2), pages 58-69.
    18. Gallouj, Faïz & Weber, K. Matthias & Stare, Metka & Rubalcaba, Luis, 2015. "The futures of the service economy in Europe: A foresight analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 80-96.
    19. Massimo Buscema & Pier Luigi Sacco & Guido Ferilli, 2016. "Multidimensional Similarities at a Global Scale: An Approach to Mapping Open Society Orientations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1239-1258, September.
    20. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    21. Chang, Yuan-Ching & Polachek, Solomon W. & Robst, John, 2004. "Conflict and trade: the relationship between geographic distance and international interactions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 491-509, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:117:y:2017:i:c:p:46-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.