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An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success

Author

Listed:
  • David Lektzian

    (Department of Political Science Texas Tech University, Lubbock)

  • Mark Souva

    (Department of Political Science Florida State University, Tallahassee)

Abstract

Why do economic sanctions sometimes succeed, but often fail, to produce a policy change? The authors argue that the effect of economic punishment is conditional on a state's political institutions. In all cases, the key to sanctions success is to generate political costs for the target regime's winning coalition. However, because of different institutional incentives, economically punishing sanctions are less likely to succeed against a nondemocratic target than against a democratic target. Sanctions increase rents. This benefits nondemocratic leaders more than democratic ones. Also, nondemocratic leaders have smaller winning coalitions, so their core constituents suffer less from sanctions than democratic leaders. Additionally, the authors' strategic argument leads to novel hypotheses regarding the initiation of sanctions. They test hypotheses from their political cost argument against all dyadic sanctions cases between 1948 and 1990, using two different dependent variables and a censored selection estimator to take into account the strategic nature of sanctioning.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lektzian & Mark Souva, 2007. "An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(6), pages 848-871, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:51:y:2007:i:6:p:848-871
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002707306811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Grauvogel, Julia & von Soest, Christian, 2013. "Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," GIGA Working Papers 235, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    2. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Are All Dictators Equal? The Selective Targeting of Democratic Sanctions against Authoritarian Regimes," GIGA Working Papers 230, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    4. Borszik, Oliver, 2014. "International Sanctions against Iran under President Ahmadinejad: Explaining Regime Persistence," GIGA Working Papers 260, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    5. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    6. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Sanctions and Democratization in the Post-Cold War Era," GIGA Working Papers 212, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    7. Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр), 2018. "The Russian Food Embargo, its Impact on Food Imports, and the Role of Third Countries in Violating the Embargo (Re-Export) [Российское Продуктовое Эмбарго, Его Влияние На Импорт Продовольственных Т," Working Papers 041802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Hirt, Nicole, 2013. "The Eritrean Diaspora: Savior or Gravedigger of the Regime? Diaspora Responses to the Imposition of UN Sanctions," GIGA Working Papers 236, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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