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Comparing New Theory with Prior Beliefs: Market Civilization and the Democratic Peace

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  • Michael Mousseau

    (Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey, MMousseau@ku.edu.tr)

Abstract

Stuart Bremer counseled against the falsificationist convention of testing new models against the null hypothesis of no model. Instead, new models should be compared against prior beliefs, and theories should compete, whenever possible, on a field of equivalent test conditions. This article applies Stuart Bremer's notion of comparative theory testing by comparing a new model of contract norms with the prior institutionalist model of democratic peace. On a field of equivalent test conditions it is found that the hypothesis for contract norms (that the democratic peace is contingent upon economic development) is thousands of times more likely to be true than the hypothesis for institutionalist theory (that democracy pacifies all dyads regardless of economic conditions). Democracy appears to be a significant force for peace only in dyads that are above the median income: the richest 45%. The results indicate that scholars of war should update the widespread prior belief that democracy, alone, causes peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Mousseau, 2005. "Comparing New Theory with Prior Beliefs: Market Civilization and the Democratic Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(1), pages 63-77, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:22:y:2005:i:1:p:63-77
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940590915327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Erich Weede, 2011. "The Capitalist Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Weede Erich, 2006. "Globale Ordnungspolitik im Zeitalter amerikanischer Hegemonie: Kritische Anmerkungen dazu, wie man Demokratie und Kapitalismus nicht verbreiten kann / Global Order in the Era of American Hegemony," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 57(1), pages 371-392, January.
    3. Christopher J. Coyne & Anne R. Bradley, 2019. "Ludwig von Mises on war and the economy," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 215-228, September.
    4. Lin Scott Y. & Seiglie Carlos, 2014. "Same Evidences, Different Interpretations – A Comparison of the Conflict Index between the Interstate Dyadic Events Data and Militarized Interstate Disputes Data in Peace-Conflict Models," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 347-372, April.

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